@article{Johnstone:2011b,
author = {Johnstone, D. J.},
journal = {Management Science},
number = {2},
pages = {308--314},
title = {Economic Interpretation of Probabilities Estimated by Maximum Likelihood or Score},
volume = {57},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Birnbaum:1997b,
title = {Tests of Theories of Decision Making: Violations of Branch Independence and Distribution Independence},
author = {Birnbaum, M. H. and Chavez, A.},
journal = {Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes},
volume = {71},
number = {2},
pages = {161--194},
year = {1997},
publisher = {Elsevier}
}
@incollection{Camerer:2004,
author = {Camerer, C. F.},
booktitle = {Advances in Behavioral Economics},
chapter = {5},
editor = {Camerer, C. F. and Loewenstein, G. and Rabin, M.},
pages = {148--161},
title = {Prospect Theory in the Wild : Evidence from the Field},
year = {2004}
}
@incollection{Birnbaum:1997,
author = {Birnbaum, M. H.},
booktitle = {Choice, Decision, and Measurement: Essays in Honor of {R.} Duncan Luce},
editor = {Marley, A. A. J.},
title = {Violations of Monotonicity in Judgment and Decision Making},
year = {1997},
pages = {73-100}
}
@article{Birnbaum:2008,
author = {Birnbaum, M. H.},
journal = {Psychological review},
number = {2},
pages = {463--501},
title = {New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making},
volume = {115},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Gonzalez:1999,
title = {On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function},
author = {Gonzalez, R. and Wu, G.},
journal = {Cognitive psychology},
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {129--166},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Jose:2009a,
title = {A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule},
author = {Jose, V. R.},
journal = {Theory and Decision},
volume = {66},
number = {3},
pages = {263--281},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Selten:1998,
title = {Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule},
author = {Selten, R.},
journal = {Experimental Economics},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
pages = {43--62},
year = {1998}
}
@article{Starmer:2000,
title = {Developments in Non-Expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice Under Risk},
author = {Starmer, C.},
journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
pages = {332--382},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Winkler:1968,
title = {``Good'' Probability Assessors},
author = {Winkler, R. L. and Murphy, A. H.},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology},
volume = {7},
number = {5},
pages = {751--758},
year = {1968}
}
@article{Quiggin:1982,
title = {A Theory of Anticipated Utility},
author = {Quiggin, J.},
journal = {Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization},
volume = {3},
number = {4},
pages = {323--343},
year = {1982}
}
@article{Carvalho:2013,
title = {Inducing Honest Reporting Without Observing Outcomes: An Application to the Peer-Review Process},
author = {Carvalho, A. and Dimitrov, S. and Larson, K.},
year = {2013},
journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.3197}
}
@article{Bernoulli:1954,
title = {Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk},
author = {Bernoulli, D.},
journal = {Econometrica},
pages = {23--36},
year = {1954}
}
@article{Tversky:1992,
title = {Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty},
author = {Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.},
journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
pages = {297--323},
year = {1992}
}
@article{Savage:1971,
author = {Savage, L. J.},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
number = {336},
pages = {783--801},
title = {Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations},
volume = {66},
year = {1971}
}
@article{Allais:1953,
year = {1953},
journal = {Econometrica},
volume = {21},
issue = {4},
title = {Violations of the Betweenness Axiom and Nonlinearity in Probability},
author = {Allais, M.},
pages = {503-546}
}
@article{Rabin:2000,
title = {Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem},
author = {Rabin, M.},
journal = {Econometrica},
volume = {68},
number = {5},
pages = {1281--1292},
year = {2000},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{Arrow:1971,
title = {Essays in the Theory of Risk-Baring},
author = {Arrow, K. J.},
volume = {1},
year = {1971},
publisher = {Markham Publishing Company Chicago}
}
@article{Holt:2002,
title = {Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects},
author = {Holt, C. A. and Laury, S. K.},
journal = {American Economic Review},
volume = {92},
number = {5},
pages = {1644--1655},
year = {2002},
publisher = {American Economic Association}
}
@article{Nakazono:2013,
author = {Nakazono, Y.},
journal = {Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization},
pages = {62--70},
title = {Strategic Behavior of Federal Open Market Committee Board Members: Evidence from Members' Forecasts},
volume = {93},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Carvalho:2012,
author = {Carvalho, A. and Larson, K.},
journal = {Decision Analysis},
number = {3},
pages = {253--273},
title = {Sharing Rewards Among Strangers Based on Peer Evaluations},
volume = {9},
year = {2012}
}
@inproceedings{Carvalho:2011,
author = {Carvalho, A. and Larson, K.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems},
pages = {635--642},
title = {A Truth Serum for Sharing Rewards},
year = {2011}
}
@inproceedings{Bacon:2012,
author = {Bacon, D. F. and Chen, Y. and Kash, I. and Parkes, D. C. and Rao, M. and Sridharan, M.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems},
pages = {695--702},
title = {Predicting Your Own Effort},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hanson:2003,
author = {Hanson, R.},
title = {Combinatorial Information Market Design},
journal = {Information Systems Frontiers},
volume = {5},
number = {1},
year = {2003},
pages = {107--119}
}
@article{Gneiting:2007,
author = {Gneiting, Tilmann and Raftery, Adrian E.},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
pages = {359--378},
title = {Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation},
volume = {102},
number = {477},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Winkler:1969,
author = {Winkler, R. L.},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
number = {327},
pages = {1073--1078},
title = {Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors},
volume = {64},
year = {1969}
}
@article{Winkler:1970,
author = {Winkler, R. L. and Murphy, A. H.},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology},
pages = {143--148},
title = {Nonlinear Utility and the Probability Score},
volume = {9},
year = {1970}
}
@article{Offerman:2009,
author = {Offerman, T. and Sonnemans, J. and Van De Kuilen, G. and Wakker, P. P.},
journal = {Review of Economic Studies},
number = {4},
pages = {1461--1489},
title = {A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes},
volume = {76},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Van:2009,
title = {Subjective Probability Weighting and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis},
author = {Van de Kuilen, G.},
journal = {Theory and Decision},
volume = {67},
number = {1},
pages = {1--22},
year = {2009},
publisher = {Springer}
}
@inproceedings{Rose:2012,
title = {A Scoring Rule-Based Mechanism for Aggregate Demand Prediction in the Smart Grid},
author = {Rose, H. and Rogers, A. and Gerding, E. H.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems},
pages = {661--668},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Schmeidler:1989,
title = {Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity},
author = {Schmeidler, D.},
journal = {Econometrica},
volume = {57},
number = {3},
pages = {571--587},
year = {1989}
}
@article{Kothiyal:2011,
author = {Kothiyal, A. and Spinu, V. and Wakker, P. P.},
journal = {Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis},
number = {3-4},
pages = {101--113},
title = {Comonotonic Proper Scoring Rules to Measure Ambiguity and Subjective Beliefs},
volume = {17},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Prelec:1998,
title = {The Probability Weighting Function},
author = {Prelec, D.},
journal = {Econometrica},
volume = {66},
number = {3},
pages = {497--527},
year = {1998}
}
@book{Wakker:2010,
title = {Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity},
author = {Wakker, P. P.},
year = {2010},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{Wakker:1996,
title = {Eliciting von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities When Probabilities are Distorted or Unknown},
author = {Wakker, P. P. and Deneffe, D.},
journal = {Management Science},
volume = {42},
number = {8},
pages = {1131--1150},
year = {1996}
}
@inproceedings{Carvalho:2010,
author = {Carvalho, A. and Larson, K.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems},
pages = {1455--1456},
title = {Sharing a Reward Based on Peer Evaluations},
year = {2010}
}
@book{Tetlock:2005,
title = {Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?},
author = {Tetlock, P. E.},
year = {2005},
publisher = {Princeton University Press}
}
@article{Abdellaoui:2000,
title = {Parameter-Free Elicitation of Utility and Probability Weighting Functions},
author = {Abdellaoui, M.},
journal = {Management Science},
volume = {46},
number = {11},
pages = {1497--1512},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Johnstone:2011,
author = {Johnstone, D. J. and Jose, V. R. R. and Winkler, R. L.},
journal = {Decision Analysis},
umber = {4},
pages = {256--268},
title = {Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities},
volume = {8},
year = {2011}
}
This file was generated by bibtex2html 1.98.