Most inventions fail to be commercialized profitably. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to predict which ones will? This paper, by Astebro and Elhedhli argues that a simple rule can do quite well making forecasts in a difficult real-world setting.
JDM 2011 Seattle: Novermber, 5-7, 2011. Now might be a good time to get a hotel reservation and flight to this year’s JDM conference. The Sheraton Seattle Hotel (map) is offering a discounted rate to the Psychonomics Society Meeting attendees, which JDM attendees can take advantage of (hotel rate information).
Decision Science News will see you in Seattle!
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Decision Science News is no stranger to misleading infographics in free New York newspapers. We could stop reading them entirely, but we find that playing “spot the infographic flaw” makes time fly on the subway.
Recently we saw the above graphic in a paper called Metro. Can you spot the goof?
The journal Judgment and Decision Making today published the third special issue on “Recognition processes in inferential decision making (III)” edited by Julian N. Marewski, Rüdiger F. Pohl and Oliver Vitouch. All the articles address the recognition heuristic [Goldstein, D. G. & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90.]
This week the reader is directed to Messy Matters to read up on research conducted by Sharad Goel, Duncan Watts and Dan Goldstein in which they hunted for traces of “viral” diffusion on Twitter, Facebook, Yahoo!, and beyond. The results run counter to mainstream intuition.
