## Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

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TWO SHOT RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH 2 BULLETS OR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 1 or 3 BULLETS With p as the probability of dying on one shot, this figure shows how to get the probability of living through the game. Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar Imagine […]

## Another rule of three, this one in statistics

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Here’s another rule of three, this one in statistics.

## How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

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FIND YOUR BIRTHDAY IN PI, IN THREE DIFFERENT FORMATS It was Pi Day (March 14, like 3/14, like 3.14, get it?) recently and Time Magazine did a fun interactive app in which you can find your birthday inside the digits of pi. However: 1) They only used one format of birthday, in which July 4th […]

## Turn your tough decisions into simple rules

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If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.

## Heuristica: An R package for testing models of binary choice

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It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.

## How many calories should you eat per day?

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How many calories should you eat per day, based on your age, sex, and activity level? Here are the US government’s recommendations.

## R is now the number two statistical computing program in scholarly use

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We were surprised to see that R has passed SAS for scholarly use. We were surprised because we assumed this would have happened years ago.

## Can’t compute the standard deviation in your head? Divide the range by four.

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Suppose you divide the range by four instead of taking the standard deviation. How accurate will you be?

## What are the most educated counties in the US?

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The 25 US counties with the highest percentage of bachelors and graduate degrees.

## The representative reviewers project for the SJDM conference

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We have a plan to make the conference’s review committee representative.