{"id":7047,"date":"2019-12-10T16:09:33","date_gmt":"2019-12-10T21:09:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=7047"},"modified":"2019-12-11T09:23:55","modified_gmt":"2019-12-11T14:23:55","slug":"how-visualizing-inferential-uncertainty-can-mislead-readers-about-treatment-effects-in-scientific-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=7047","title":{"rendered":"How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>STANDARD ERRORS VS STANDARD DEVIATIONS<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/hgh_l.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7056\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/hgh_s.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"219\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<em>Click to enlarge<\/em><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s an ancient haiku that goes:<\/p>\n<p><em>People confuse a<\/em><br \/>\n<em>well-estimated mean with<\/em><br \/>\n<em>a certain outcome<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Ok, that&#8217;s not true.<\/p>\n<p>But <a href=\"http:\/\/jakehofman.com\/\">Jake Hofman<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/dangoldstein.com\/\">Dan Goldstein<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/users.eecs.northwestern.edu\/~jhullman\/\">Jessica Hullman<\/a> have a new paper (recently accepted at <a href=\"https:\/\/chi2020.acm.org\/\">CHI 2020<\/a>) about this.<\/p>\n<p>They bet you&#8217;ll think the results of their paper look are more impressive if you look at the plot on the left pane than if you look at the one on the right.<\/p>\n<p>At least that what the results of their paper say.<\/p>\n<p>Preprint here: <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/353kBtj\">http:\/\/bit.ly\/353kBtj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s only a limited number of PDFs available, so grab one today.<\/p>\n<p>Ok, that&#8217;s not true either.<\/p>\n<p>Special thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iamwillcai\">@iamwillcai<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_JenAllen\">@_JenAllen<\/a> for their RAship on this!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>STANDARD ERRORS VS STANDARD DEVIATIONS Click to enlarge There&#8217;s an ancient haiku that goes: People confuse a well-estimated mean with a certain outcome Ok, that&#8217;s not true. But Jake Hofman, Dan Goldstein, and Jessica Hullman have a new paper (recently accepted at CHI 2020) about this. They bet you&#8217;ll think the results of their paper [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[3,16],"tags":[1827,1852,1700,208,294,1845,1846,968,1848,1853,1849,441,1850,1847,1851],"class_list":["post-7047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conferences","category-ideas","tag-1827","tag-certain","tag-chi","tag-goldstein","tag-hofman","tag-hullman","tag-inferential","tag-mean","tag-mislead","tag-outcome","tag-readers","tag-results","tag-scientific","tag-uncertainty","tag-well-estimated"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-1PF","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7047"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7060,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7047\/revisions\/7060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}