{"id":5791,"date":"2016-07-25T11:39:04","date_gmt":"2016-07-25T15:39:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=5791"},"modified":"2016-07-25T11:39:04","modified_gmt":"2016-07-25T15:39:04","slug":"betting-hillary-clinton-will-next-president-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=5791","title":{"rendered":"We&#8217;ve bet that Hillary Clinton will win"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>PUTTING OUR MONEY WHERE OUR MOUTH IS<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/uspres.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5795\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/uspres.s.logo_.gif\" alt=\"uspres.s.logo\" width=\"485\" height=\"302\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<em>Click to enlarge<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Some experts seem pretty sure Donald Trump will be the next US President. Michael Moore wrote an article entitled <a href=\"http:\/\/michaelmoore.com\/trumpwillwin\/\">5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/2016\/07\/25\/betting-hillary-clinton-will-next-president-united-states\/moore\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-5797\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5797\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/moore.gif\" alt=\"moore\" width=\"485\" height=\"21\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Prediction maven Nate Silver has warned a few days ago &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/756681961809272832\">Don&#8217;t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It&#8217;s a close election right now<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/2016\/07\/25\/betting-hillary-clinton-will-next-president-united-states\/silver\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-5796\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5796\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/silver.gif\" alt=\"silver\" width=\"485\" height=\"130\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Despite this, we think that Hillary Clinton is going to win.<\/p>\n<p>And we&#8217;ve put our money where our mouth is. There&#8217;s a prediction market called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.predictit.org\">PredictIt<\/a> in which US citizens in most states can legally bet on events happening or not. There&#8217;s an $850 limit on any contract, but you can get around that, in the following way.<\/p>\n<p>As the figure up top shows, we&#8217;ve placed two bets:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We bet $799.50 that the next President will not be a Republican. That is, we bought 1250 shares of &#8220;no&#8221; on that contract at 65 cents each. If the next President is indeed not a Republican, we&#8217;ll be able to sell those shares for a dollar each, or $1230. Otherwise we lose our money.<\/li>\n<li>We bet $849.87 that Hillary Clinton will be the next President. That is, we bought 1349 shares of &#8220;yes&#8221; on that contract at 63 cents. If Hillary wins, we&#8217;ll be able to sell our shares for $1349. Otherwise we lose our money.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, we&#8217;ve bet $1,649.37. If Hillary wins, we&#8217;ll have $2,579 (minus the market&#8217;s 10% fee on profits). If Trump or some other Republican wins, we&#8217;ll have bupkis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ve legally bet 1,600 bucks that Clinton will win. Here&#8217;s how.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[7,16],"tags":[1435,62,1428,1430,1319,1427,300,817,1432,1431,1434,31,1409,1433,1429,471],"class_list":["post-5791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gossip","category-ideas","tag-bet","tag-betting","tag-clinton","tag-contract","tag-future","tag-hillary","tag-legal","tag-market","tag-michael","tag-moore","tag-nate","tag-prediction","tag-predictit","tag-silver","tag-trump","tag-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-1vp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5791","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5791"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5791\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5804,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5791\/revisions\/5804"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5791"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5791"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5791"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}