{"id":5479,"date":"2016-02-08T13:32:05","date_gmt":"2016-02-08T18:32:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=5479"},"modified":"2016-02-08T13:32:05","modified_gmt":"2016-02-08T18:32:05","slug":"hooray-for-expertise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=5479","title":{"rendered":"Hooray for experts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>EXPERTS SAID OBAMA WOULDN&#8217;T BE ELECTED PRESIDENT AND $3 GAS IS HERE TO STAY<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/2016\/02\/08\/hooray-for-expertise\/cb\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-5529\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5529\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/cb.jpg\" alt=\"cb\" width=\"485\" height=\"339\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>From <a href=\"http:\/\/newsroom.aaa.com\/2013\/09\/gas-prices-surpass-3-00-per-gallon-for-1000-consecutive-days-in-longest-streak-ever\/\">this article<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Paying less than $3.00 per gallon for gasoline may be automotive history for most Americans, like using 8-track tapes or going to a drive-in movie,\u201d said Bob Darbelnet, President and CEO of AAA. \u201cThe reality is that expensive gas is here to stay, which is tough on millions of people who need a car to live their lives. While a few lucky drivers may occasionally pay less than $3.00 per gallon, the national average is likely to remain more costly into the future.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Aaand today&#8217;s AAA national average gas price is $1.75.<\/p>\n<p>In an election year, it&#8217;s good to keep in mind these quotes about Obama&#8217;s prospects in 2008, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/story\/2009\/11\/4\/798696\/-\">from this article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary.&#8221; &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/story\/cms.php?story_id=4569&amp;print=1\">William Kristol<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>and<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The right knows Obama is unelectable except perhaps against Attila the Hun.&#8221; &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/a\/green-penn-3-19-07.mhtml\">Mark Penn<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>and<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Sen. Obama cannot possibly believe, and doesn&#8217;t even act as if he believes, that he can be elected president of the United States next year.&#8221; &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/id\/2174590\/\">Christopher Hitchens<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230; and plenty more <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/story\/2009\/11\/4\/798696\/-\">poor predictions about Obama in 2008 here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Does this mean humans suffer from a chronic overconfidence bias? We don&#8217;t think so. These experts had short term incentives to make predictions, some even had incentives to make bad predictions to impart the illusion of &#8220;social proof&#8221;. And remember, bad, bold forecasts are amusing because they&#8217;re rare. <\/p>\n<p>The takeaway here is that if you don&#8217;t want to be called out in the future, don&#8217;t sound certain about uncertain things.<\/p>\n<p>Photo credit: https:\/\/flic.kr\/p\/iMsTPi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EXPERTS SAID OBAMA WOULDN&#8217;T BE ELECTED PRESIDENT AND $3 GAS IS HERE TO STAY From this article: Paying less than $3.00 per gallon for gasoline may be automotive history for most Americans, like using 8-track tapes or going to a drive-in movie,\u201d said Bob Darbelnet, President and CEO of AAA. \u201cThe reality is that expensive [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[7,16],"tags":[52,1318,1316,1079,1319,461,1308,203,53,1234,1320,1317,31],"class_list":["post-5479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gossip","category-ideas","tag-decision","tag-expert","tag-experts","tag-forecast","tag-future","tag-gas","tag-incorrect","tag-judgment","tag-making","tag-obama","tag-overconfidence","tag-predict","tag-prediction"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-1qn","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5479"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5479\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5535,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5479\/revisions\/5535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}