{"id":3507,"date":"2012-07-25T12:09:48","date_gmt":"2012-07-25T16:09:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=3507"},"modified":"2012-07-25T12:09:48","modified_gmt":"2012-07-25T16:09:48","slug":"the-housing-bubble-where-are-we","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=3507","title":{"rendered":"The housing bubble: Where are we?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>DIFFERENT CITIES TELL DIFFERENT STORIES<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/cs_big.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3508\" title=\"cs_big\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/cs_big.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"600\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Last spring we looked at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/2011\/03\/17\/the-housing-bubble-by-city\/\">the state of the housing bubble in the US<\/a>. The question on readers&#8217; minds then was &#8220;where is it going next&#8221;? Since Decision Science News is looking for a place to buy, it is on our minds as well.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been more than a year, so let&#8217;s have a look. Above, we see the plot for all cities. We realize the colors are hard to follow, so if you want to track your city, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.standardandpoors.com\/indices\/articles\/en\/us\/?articleType=XLS&amp;assetID=1221192472066\">download the spreadsheet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In January 2011, the average index value across the cities represented here was 127, in April 2012 (the latest data we have) it was 124. The &#8220;composite 10&#8221; score in January 2011 was 154, it went to 148. Similarity the &#8220;composite 20&#8221; value went from 141 to 136. So, things have continued to drop a bit.<\/p>\n<p>All depends on the local market, however. This is an Olympic year, so we really should highlight a few exceptional stories (the same ones we profiled in 2011):<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/cs.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3509\" title=\"cs\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/cs.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"388\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Want to reproduce these graphs yourself? Go right ahead! Here&#8217;s the code. Plots are made with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.r-project.org\/\">R<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/had.co.nz\/\">Hadley Wickham<\/a>&#8216;s <a href=\"http:\/\/had.co.nz\/ggplot2\/\">ggplot2<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><code><br \/>\nlibrary(ggplot2)<br \/>\nlibrary(reshape)<br \/>\n## Read in data, available from:<br \/>\n#www.standardandpoors.com\/indices\/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices\/en\/us\/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----<br \/>\n#Delete the 2nd row and make 1st col 1st row say YEAR<br \/>\ndat=read.csv(\"CSHomePrice_History.csv\")<br \/>\nmdf=melt(dat,id.vars=\"YEAR\")<br \/>\nmdf$Date=as.Date(paste(\"01-\",mdf$YEAR,sep=\"\"),\"%d-%b-%y\")<br \/>\nnames(mdf)=c(\"MonthYear\",\"City\",\"IndexValue\",\"Date\")<br \/>\nmdf$yr=format(mdf$Date,\"%Y\")<br \/>\nmdf=subset(mdf,yr&gt;1999)<br \/>\nggplot(data=mdf,aes(x=Date,y=IndexValue)) + geom_line(aes(color=City),size=1.25) +<br \/>\nscale_x_date(\"Year\", minor_breaks=\"years\") + scale_y_continuous(\"Case Schiller Index\")<br \/>\nsm=subset(mdf,City %in% c('NY.New.York','FL.Miami','CA.Los Angeles','MI.Detroit',<br \/>\n'TX.Dallas','IL.Chicago','DC.Washington'))<br \/>\nsm$City=droplevels(sm$City)<br \/>\nggplot(data=sm,aes(x=Date,y=IndexValue)) + geom_line(aes(color=City),size=1.5) +<br \/>\nscale_x_date(\"Year\", minor_breaks=\"years\") + scale_y_continuous(\"Case Schiller Index\")<br \/>\n<\/code><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last spring we looked at the state of the housing bubble in the US. The question of readers&#8217; minds then was &#8220;where is it going next&#8221;?<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been more than a year, so let&#8217;s have a look, above.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[16,74],"tags":[416,415,169,107,126,414,1208,70],"class_list":["post-3507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideas","category-r","tag-bubble","tag-cities","tag-ggplot","tag-ggplot2","tag-graphs","tag-housing","tag-r","tag-statistics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-Uz","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3507"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3519,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3507\/revisions\/3519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}