{"id":342,"date":"2008-06-04T01:18:38","date_gmt":"2008-06-04T00:18:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=342"},"modified":"2008-06-07T18:32:19","modified_gmt":"2008-06-07T17:32:19","slug":"who-will-be-the-european-champion-in-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=342","title":{"rendered":"Who will be the European champion in 2008?"},"content":{"rendered":"

TEST YOUR SOCCER PREDICTION SKILLS<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Stefan Herzog over in Basel lets us know about a short online study (15 – 20 minutes) on how people predict outcomes in the context of football (soccer). Anybody can participate; this study is explicitly not<\/span> just for people who are interested or an expert in football.<\/p>\n

You can optionally request (a) feedback on your prediction strategy and (b) additional information about this study (once it is completed).<\/p>\n

This study is non-commercially oriented, that is, its data is solely used for scientific purposes and is treated confidentially.<\/p>\n

Please visit: http:\/\/phpserver.psycho.unibas.ch\/em2008\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Thank you very much for participating!<\/p>\n

Photo credit: http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/76579169@N00\/178821720\/<\/span><\/p>\n

UPDATE
\nIn a bold move, the authors have decided to publish their predictions here on Decision Science News so that nobody can accuse them of changing their model after the matches begin. For further evidence, the results have been archived at The Internet Archive<\/a>. Here they are:
\n
\ngame\tgroup\tteam1\tteam2\trec1\trec2\trecrank1\trecrank2\trec_prediction
\n1\tA\tSUI\tCZE\t0.25\t0.26\t9\t8\tCZE
\n2\tA\tPOR\tTUR\t0.41\t0.15\t3\t13\tPOR
\n3\tB\tAUT\tCRO\t0.15\t0.24\t12\t10\tCRO
\n4\tB\tGER\tPOL\t0.49\t0.14\t1\t14\tGER
\n5\tC\tROU\tFRA\t0.12\t0.4\t15\t4\tFRA
\n6\tC\tNED\tITA\t0.35\t0.43\t5\t2\tITA
\n7\tD\tESP\tRUS\t0.35\t0.12\t6\t16\tESP
\n8\tD\tGRE\tSWE\t0.17\t0.31\t11\t7\tSWE
\n9\tA\tCZE\tPOR\t0.26\t0.41\t8\t3\tPOR
\n10\tA\tSUI\tTUR\t0.25\t0.15\t9\t13\tSUI
\n11\tB\tCRO\tGER\t0.24\t0.49\t10\t1\tGER
\n12\tB\tAUT\tPOL\t0.15\t0.14\t12\t14\tAUT
\n13\tC\tITA\tROU\t0.43\t0.12\t2\t15\tITA
\n14\tC\tNED\tFRA\t0.35\t0.4\t5\t4\tFRA
\n15\tD\tSWE\tESP\t0.31\t0.35\t7\t6\tESP
\n16\tD\tGRE\tRUS\t0.17\t0.12\t11\t16\tGRE
\n17\tA\tSUI\tPOR\t0.25\t0.41\t9\t3\tPOR
\n18\tA\tTUR\tCZE\t0.15\t0.26\t13\t8\tCZE
\n19\tB\tPOL\tCRO\t0.14\t0.24\t14\t10\tCRO
\n20\tB\tAUT\tGER\t0.15\t0.49\t12\t1\tGER
\n21\tC\tNED\tROU\t0.35\t0.12\t5\t15\tNED
\n22\tC\tFRA\tITA\t0.4\t0.43\t4\t2\tITA
\n23\tD\tGRE\tESP\t0.17\t0.35\t11\t6\tESP
\n24\tD\tRUS\tSWE\t0.12\t0.31\t16\t7\tSWE
\ncountry\tgroup\trec\trecrank
\nGER\tB\t0.492\t1
\nITA\tC\t0.432\t2
\nPOR\tA\t0.409\t3
\nFRA\tC\t0.4\t4
\nNED\tC\t0.354\t5
\nESP\tD\t0.347\t6
\nSWE\tD\t0.307\t7
\nCZE\tA\t0.26\t8
\nSUI\tA\t0.246\t9
\nCRO\tB\t0.24\t10
\nGRE\tD\t0.167\t11
\nAUT\tB\t0.153\t12
\nTUR\tA\t0.146\t13
\nPOL\tB\t0.135\t14
\nROU\tC\t0.125\t15
\nRUS\tD\t0.116\t16
\n<\/code><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TEST YOUR SOCCER PREDICTION SKILLS Stefan Herzog over in Basel lets us know about a short online study (15 – 20 minutes) on how people predict outcomes in the context of football (soccer). Anybody can participate; this study is explicitly not just for people who are interested or an expert in football. You can optionally […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-5w","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}