Lionel Page<\/a> (University of Westminster), in conjunction with Paul Antoine Chevalier (Paris School of Economics), Dan Goldstein<\/a> (London Business School & Decision Science News), Leighton Vaughan Williams<\/a> (Nottingham Trent University), and Peter Urwin<\/a> (University of Westminster) are pleased to bring you Politimetrics.com<\/a> a Web site that uses prediction markets to forecast election outcomes and more.<\/p>\n What candidate would have the highest probability to win the presidential election if nominated? What candidate has the program which is more likely to foster growth, reduce unemployment and crime?<\/em><\/p>\n All these crucial questions for the voters in this 2008 US election cannot be answered using traditional polls. Using prediction markets in a innovative way, the website Politimetrics.com<\/a> proposes answers to these questions.<\/p>\n Politimetrics.com<\/a> presents the estimation of the the conditional probability of success of each candidate if nominated\/elected. The numbers are estimated in real time, directly from the prices on specific Intrade<\/a> contracts.<\/p>\n At this stage of the primary campaign, politimetrics proposes the best answer available the question: “who are the candidates the most likely to win the presidential election if nominated?” Later on in the campaign, we plan to present an even more interesting answer: “which candidate would be the most successful president on a list of issues?” To do so, we have proposed to Intrade a series of specific contracts (listed under the section “Impact of Next President” on their website). Eventually, we hope to be able to answer to questions like:<\/p>\n Is Hilary Clinton more likely to be more effective in managing the economy than John McCain?<\/em><\/p>\n Is Mitt Romney more likely to decrease crime than Barack Obama?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" POLITIMETRICS Lionel Page (University of Westminster), in conjunction with Paul Antoine Chevalier (Paris School of Economics), Dan Goldstein (London Business School & Decision Science News), Leighton Vaughan Williams (Nottingham Trent University), and Peter Urwin (University of Westminster) are pleased to bring you Politimetrics.com a Web site that uses prediction markets to forecast election outcomes and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[2,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-news","category-sjdm"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-4S","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/302\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"politimetrics\"](\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/01\/polmet.jpg\")
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