{"id":1178,"date":"2009-12-01T23:09:54","date_gmt":"2009-12-01T22:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1178"},"modified":"2009-12-02T14:26:10","modified_gmt":"2009-12-02T13:26:10","slug":"a-simple-heuristic-to-forecast-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1178","title":{"rendered":"A simple heuristic to forecast elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>PREDICTING ELECTIONS FROM THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1191   aligncenter\" title=\"Ele5\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/Ele5.jpg\" alt=\"Ele5\" width=\"450\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/Ele5.jpg 450w, https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/Ele5-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong have put forth a model that predicts the outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections based on the most important issue as seen by voters. It&#8217;s a good illustration of how one cue, if it&#8217;s a good one, can be effective for forecasting.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s an early draft and they would appreciate comments.<\/p>\n<p>The paper is available here: <a href=\"http:\/\/pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com\/images\/papers\/PollyMIP.pdf\">http:\/\/pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com\/images\/papers\/PollyMIP.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\">Photo credit: http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Election_MG_3455.jpg<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PREDICTING ELECTIONS FROM THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong have put forth a model that predicts the outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections based on the most important issue as seen by voters. It&#8217;s a good illustration of how one cue, if it&#8217;s a good one, can be effective for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[2],"tags":[24,23,22,25],"class_list":["post-1178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-news","tag-elections","tag-forecasting","tag-heuristics","tag-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-j0","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1178"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1178\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1799,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1178\/revisions\/1799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}