{"id":1104,"date":"2009-10-06T22:27:21","date_gmt":"2009-10-06T21:27:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1104"},"modified":"2009-10-07T13:16:58","modified_gmt":"2009-10-07T12:16:58","slug":"the-bulgarian-coincidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1104","title":{"rendered":"The Bulgarian coincidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>LAND OF MYSTERIOUS REPETITION<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1131  aligncenter\" title=\"Bulg_Prov2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/10\/Bulg_Prov2.png\" alt=\"Bulg_Prov2\" width=\"475\" height=\"313\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/10\/Bulg_Prov2.png 475w, https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/10\/Bulg_Prov2-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Decision Science News used to think of Bulgaria as a haven for cheap skiing, but has recently learned that it is the land of magical coincidences.<\/p>\n<p>On September 6th, the winning lBulgarian ottery numbers were<\/p>\n<p>4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42<\/p>\n<p>Amazing? Hardly. But on the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">very next play <\/span>of the lottery the winning numbers were<\/p>\n<p>4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42<\/p>\n<p>Amazing? Yes. Coincidence? Maybe. Shenanigans? Maybe. Eighteen people bet on the winning numbers the second time around, which is technically a fraction of the Bulgarian population. According to the BBC <a href=\"http:\/\/news.bbc.co.uk\/1\/hi\/world\/europe\/8259801.stm\" target=\"_blank\">an investigation is underway<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Friend of DSN and professional R meister David Smith has done <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.revolution-computing.com\/2009\/09\/a-coincidence-occurred-film-at-11.html\" target=\"_blank\">his own analysis of the problem<\/a> and figures that<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>given conservative assumptions, there&#8217;s just over a 1% chance of a back-to-back drawings somewhere in the world over a 50-year period.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>David concludes the Bulgarian lottery result &#8220;is not so quite so surprising after all&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>But what we have here is the probability of the data given the null (randomness) at 1%. And <a href=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=176\" target=\"_self\">what do most scientists do<\/a> when the probability of the data given the null  is less than 5%?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LAND OF MYSTERIOUS REPETITION Decision Science News used to think of Bulgaria as a haven for cheap skiing, but has recently learned that it is the land of magical coincidences. On September 6th, the winning lBulgarian ottery numbers were 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 Amazing? Hardly. But on the very next play of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideas"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-hO","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1104"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1138,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104\/revisions\/1138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}