{"id":1034,"date":"2009-08-24T00:34:59","date_gmt":"2009-08-23T23:34:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1034"},"modified":"2009-08-22T23:14:33","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T22:14:33","slug":"transition-probabilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/?p=1034","title":{"rendered":"Transition probabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION ON WHETHER YOUR FLIGHT WILL BE LATE<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1036  aligncenter\" title=\"fc\" src=\"http:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/08\/fc1.jpg\" alt=\"fc\" width=\"487\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/08\/fc1.jpg 487w, https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/08\/fc1-300x162.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 487px) 100vw, 487px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">DSN reader Yael sends along this <a href=\"http:\/\/intransit.blogs.nytimes.com\/2009\/08\/19\/new-tool-predicts-flight-delays\">NY Times InTransit piece<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/flightcaster.com\/\">Flight Caster,<\/a> a web site that uses historical data to generate probabilities that flights will be late. DSN likes the following things:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The idea of FlightCaster<\/li>\n<li>The idea of ubiquitous probabilistic information in the age of the networked database and smartphone<\/li>\n<li>The idea that accurate probabilistic information in the environment will encourage the public to embrace and understand\u00a0 probabilities<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We thought Flight Caster would be useful this week, as Decision Science News is travelling to the <a href=\"http:\/\/discof.unitn.it\/spudm22\/\">SPUDM: Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making<\/a> Conference in Italy, but unfortunately Flight Caster does not do flights outside the US.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, it does remind the DSN Editor of the time in the 1990s when, just before a trip to Milan, he asked an Italian colleague what percentage of Alitalia flights were late. &#8220;What percentage?&#8221; The colleague blinked and leaned forward to make sure he didn&#8217;t misunderstand. &#8220;Hundred!&#8221; he laughed, looking like he&#8217;d just been asked to add ninety-nine and one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION ON WHETHER YOUR FLIGHT WILL BE LATE DSN reader Yael sends along this NY Times InTransit piece on Flight Caster, a web site that uses historical data to generate probabilities that flights will be late. DSN likes the following things: The idea of FlightCaster The idea of ubiquitous probabilistic information in the age [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[3,16,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conferences","category-ideas","category-tools"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4LKj-gG","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1034"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1039,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034\/revisions\/1039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.decisionsciencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}