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June 27, 2007

Jobs at UCSD

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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO, HIRING MARKETING PROFESSORS

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UCSD’s business school is small but growing fast, and is already home to decision researchers such as On Amir, David Schkade, Uri Gneezy, Craig McKenzie. The Marketing area is hiring. Since Marketing is JDM with teeth, Decision Science News readers may be interested:

The Rady School of Management (http://rady.ucsd.edu/) at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) invites applications for assistant, associate and full professor positions in marketing. Preference will be given to experienced applicants who have distinguished scholarly records, have demonstrated teaching expertise with graduate students and executives, and are good institution builders. All applicants must have a Ph.D. or will be working towards a Ph.D. by the start date of the new academic year. Associate-level candidates must show evidence of a strong research record in their specialization, while candidates for senior rank must demonstrate a continuing publication record in leading journals. Salary and appointment level are dependent on experience and based on University of California pay scales. The positions are expected to have a start date of July 1, 2008. A detailed vita (PDF or Word document form) will be accepted only by email to radymarketing at ucsd.edu. Please indicate reference job code ACRMKTG on the subject line and state the level of position you are applying for in the cover letter. Review will begin October 1, 2007 and will continue until positions are filled. UCSD is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer with a strong institutional commitment to the achievement of excellence through diversity among its faculty and staff.

For information contact:
Monique M. Tanjuaquio, Academic Personnel Coordinator, radymarketing at ucsd.edu

June 20, 2007

Beyond shifting eyes and shifting posture

Filed in Research News
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A BETTER WAY TO DECIDE ABOUT LYING

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Aldert Vrij and other researchers at the University of Portsmouth have found that often-recommended lie detection methods, such as looking for verbal or visual cues of deception, aren’t terribly effective. A promising approach may be to ask interviewees to answer in a more cognitively-demanding fashion, such as recounting what happened in reverse temporal order. Simply put, to test if a story is true, ask the person to tell it backwards. The idea is that juggling the facts paired with mental aerobics is so difficult that it leads to the dropping of balls.

Thanks to our friends at The Telegraph for the tip.

Reference:
Vrij, A., Mann, S., Kristen, S., & Fisher, R. P. (in press). Cues to deception and ability to detect lies as a function of police interview styles. Law and Human Behavior.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=428368071&size=m

June 13, 2007

Should you test for statistical significance?

Filed in Research News ,SJDM
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ARGUMENTS AGAINST ALL SIGNIFICANCE TESTS

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This week, the always-provocative J. Scott Armstrong submits this comment to Decision Science News:

“About two years ago, I was a reasonable person who argued that tests of statistical significance were useful in some limited situations. After completing research for “Significance tests harm progress in forecasting” in the International Journal of Forecasting, 23 (2007), 321-327, I have concluded that tests of statistical significance should never be used. Here is the abstract:

I briefly summarize prior research showing that tests of statistical significance are improperly used even in leading scholarly journals. Attempts to educate researchers to avoid pitfalls have had little success. Even when done properly, however, statistical significance tests are of no value. Other researchers have discussed reasons for these failures. I was unable to find empirical evidence to support the use of significance tests under any conditions. I then show that tests of statistical significance are harmful to the development of scientific knowledge because they distract the researcher from the use of proper methods. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining a re-analysis of the M3-Competition. Although the authors of the re-analysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggested that the original M3-Competition was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors, and that the selection of the best method is dependent on the selection of a proper error measure; however, I show that the original conclusions were correct. Authors should avoid tests of statistical significance; instead, they should report on effect sizes, confidence intervals, replications/extensions, and meta-analyses. Practitioners should ignore significance tests and journals should discourage them. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.03.004

The paper is followed by commentaries by Keith Ord, Herman Stekler, and Paul Goodwin, and by my reply “Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries” , which can be found online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.010

This is happy news for practitioners, researchers, and students. On the other hand, it might create anguish among faculty who teach people about statistical significance.”

June 7, 2007

2007 AMA interviews: The Marketing-Professor job market is here

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EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE AMA INTERVIEWS FOR THE ACADEMIC MARKETING JOB MARKET

Today at DSN we re-publish a piece Dan Goldstein first published here in 2005.

WHY AM I WRITING THIS?
I’ve seen the Marketing job market turn happy grad students into quivering masses of fear. I want to share my experiences and provide a bit advice to make the whole process less mysterious.

WHAT DO I KNOW?
I’ve been on the AMA job market twice and the Psychology market once. As a professor I’ve conducted 20 AMA interviews and contributed to hiring decisions. I’ve had about 40 AMA interviews, as well as numerous campus visits, face-to-face interviews, offers, and rejections. I’m an outsider to Marketing who went on the market older and with more experience than the average rookie (35 years of age, with 8 years of research scientist, postdoc, visiting scholar, and industry positions). I’ve hired many people for many academic posts, so I know both sides.

HOW TO GET INTO THE AMA JOB MARKET
First, at least a couple months before the conference, find where it will be. It’s called the Summer Educator’s Conference. Strange name, I know. Get yourself a room in the conference hotel, preferably on the floor where the express elevator meets the local elevator for the upper floors. You’ll be hanging out on this floor waiting to change elevators anyway, so you might as well start there.

Next, get your advisor / sponsor to write a cover letter encouraging people to meet with you at AMA. It helps if this person is in Marketing. Get 1 or 2 other letters of recommendation, a CV, and some choice pubs. Put them in an envelope and mail them out to a friend of your sponsor at the desired school. It should look like the letter is coming from your sponsor, even though you are doing the actual assembly and mailing. Repeat this process a bunch of times. It’s a good idea to hit a school with 2 packets, 3 if you suspect they’re a little disorganized. Certainly send one to the recruiting coordinator (they may send letters to your department’s secretary telling you they are hiring) and one to your sponsor’s friend. Mail to schools regardless of whether they are advertising a position or not. This is academia: nobody knows anything. This means you may be sending 50 or more packets. You want to have them mailed by the 4th of July at the absolute latest.

THEN WHAT?
Wait to get calls or emails from schools wishing to set up AMA interviews with you. These calls may come in as late as one week before the conference. Some schools will not invite you for totally unknown reasons. You may get interviews from the top 10 schools and rejected from the 30th-ranked one. Don’t sweat it. Again, this is a land of total and absolute unpredictability that you’re entering into. Also, know that just because you get an interview doesn’t mean they have a job. Sometimes schools don’t know until the last minute if they’ll have funding for a post. Still, you’ll want to meet with them anyway. After the AMA, you’ll hopefully get “fly-outs,” that is, offers to come and visit the campus and give a talk. This means you’ve made the top five or so. Most offers go down in December. There’s a second market that happens after all the schools realize they’ve made offers to the same person. Of course, some schools get wise to this and don’t make offers to amazing people who would have come. We need some kind of market mechanism to work out this part of the system.

THE “IT’S ALL ABOUT FRIENDSHIP” RULE
Keep in mind that you will leave this process with 1 or 0 jobs. Therefore, when talking to a person, the most likely thing is that they will not be your colleague in the future. Therefore, think of each opportunity as a chance to make a friend. You’ll need friends to collaborate, to get tenure, get grants, and to go on the market again if you’re not happy with what you get.

HOW DO YOU FIND OUT IN WHICH ROOM TO INTERVIEW?
The schools will leave messages for you telling you in which rooms your interviews will be. You’ll get calls, emails, and notes held for you at the hotel reception. Some schools will fail to get in touch with you so you have to try to find them. Many profs ask the hotel to make their room number public, but even so the hotel may not comply. Try to take care of this early on the first day.

HOW DO THE ACTUAL AMA INTERVIEWS GO?
At the pre-arranged time you will knock on their hotel room door. You will be let into a suite (p=.4) or a normal hotel room (p=.5, but see below). In the latter case, there will be people you once imagined as dignified sitting on beds. The other people in the room may not look at you when you walk in because they will be looking for a precious few seconds at your CV. For at least some people in the room, this may be the first time they have concentrated on your CV. Yikes is right. Put the important stuff early in your CV so nobody can miss it.

THE SEAT OF HONOR
There will be an armchair. Someone will motion towards the armchair, smile, and say, “You get the seat of honor!” This will happen at every school, at every interview, for three days. I promise.

THE TIME COURSE
There will be two minutes of pleasant chit-chat. They will propose that you talk first and they talk next. There will be a little table next to the chair on which you will put your flip book of slides. You will present for 30 minutes, taking their questions as they come. They will be very nice. When done, they will ask you if you have anything to ask them. You of course do not. You hate this question. You make something up. Don’t worry, they too have a spiel, and all you need to do is find a way to get them started on it. By the time they are done, it’s time for you to leave. The whole experience will feel like it went rather well.

PREDICTING IF YOU WILL GET A FLY-OUT
It’s impossible to tell from how it seems to have gone whether they will give you a fly-out or not. Again, this is the land of staggering and high-impact uncertainty. They might not invite you because you were too bad (and they don’t want you), or because you were too good (and they think they don’t stand a chance of getting you).

DO INTERVIEWS DEVIATE FROM THAT MODEL?
Yes.

Sometimes instead of a hotel room, they will have a private meeting room (p=.075). Sometimes they will have a private meeting room with fruit, coffee, and bottled water (p=.025). Sometimes, they will fall asleep while you are speaking (p=.05). Sometimes they will be rude to you (p=.025). Sometimes a key person will miss an early interview due to a hangover (p=.025). Sometimes, if it’s the end of the day, they will drink alcohol with you (p=.18, given that it’s the end of the day).

HOW YOU THINK THE PROCESS WORKS
The committee has read your CV and cover letter and looked at your pubs. They know your topic and can instantly appreciate that what you are doing is important. They know the value of each journal you have published in and each prize you’ve won. They know your advisor and the strengths she or he instills into each student. They ignore what they’re supposed to ignore and assume everything they’re supposed to assume. They’ll discount the interview and fly you out based on your record.

HOW THE PROCESS REALLY WORKS
The interviewers will have looked at your CV for about one minute a couple months ago, and for a few seconds as you walked in the room. They will never have read your entire cover letter, and they will have forgotten most of what they did read. They could care less about your advisor and will get offended that you didn’t cite their advisor. They’ll pay attention to everything they’re supposed to ignore and assume nothing except what you repeat five times. Flouting 50 years of research in judgment and decision-making, they’ll discount your CV and fly you out based on your interview.

TWO WAYS TO GIVE YOUR SPIEL
1) The plow. You start and the first slide and go through them until the last slide. Stop when interrupted and get back on track.

2) The volley. Keep the slides closed and just talk with the people about your topic. Get them to converse with you, to ask you questions, to ask for clarifications. When you need to show them something, open up the presentation and show them just that slide.

I did the plow the first year and the volley the second year. I got four times more fly-outs the second year. Econometricians are now trying to determine if there was causality.

HOW TO ACT
Make no mistake, you are an actor auditioning for a part. You have to bring the energy into the room with you. There will be none awaiting your arrival, I promise you. These people are tired. They’ve been listening to people in a stuffy hotel room from dawn till dusk for days. If you do an average job, you lose: You have to be two standard deviations above the mean to get a fly-out. So audition for the part, and make yourself stand out. If you want to learn how actors audition, read Audition by Michael Shurtleff.

SOCIAL SKILLS MATTER
From the candidate’s point of view, everything is about the CV and the correctness of the proofs in the manuscript. However, for better or for worse, extra-academic qualities matter. Here are two examples. 1) The Social Lubricant factor. Departments get visitors all the time: guest speakers, visiting professors, job candidates, etc. Some departments are a bunch of folks who stare at their shoes when introduced to a new person. These departments have a real problem: they have nobody on board who can make visitors feel at ease, and sooner or later word starts to spread about how socially awkward the people at University X are. To fix such problems, departments sometimes hire socially-skilled types who know how to make people comfortable in conversation, and who know how to ask good questions during talks. Also, interviewers assume (probably incorrectly) that people who can talk a good game will be star teachers. 2) The Soft Sell factor. Many people succeed in academia not because they are often right, but also because they are masters of making other people feel like they aren’t wrong. Defensiveness or determination to embarrass when responding to critique is a sure way to blow an interview.

HAVE A QUIRK
One of the biggest risks facing you is that you will be forgotten. Make sure the interviewers know something unusual about you. My quirk is that I worked internationally as a theater director for over 10 years. It’s got nothing to do my research, but I can’t tell you the number of people who bring up this odd little fact when I do campus visits.

DON’T GIVE UP
Never think it’s hopeless. Just because you’re not two SDs above the mean at the school of your dreams, doesn’t mean you’re not the dream candidate of another perfectly good school. The students are competing for schools and the schools are competing for students. If you strike out, you can just try again next year. I know a person in Psychology who got 70 rejections in one year. I know a person in Marketing who was told he didn’t place in the top 60 candidates at the 20th ranked school. The subsequent year, both people got hired by top 5 departments. One of them is ridiculously famous!

RUMORS
Don’t gossip. All gossip can mess with your chances. Gossip that you are doing well can hurt you because schools will be afraid to invite you if they think you won’t come. Gossip that you are doing poorly can hurt you because schools that like you will be afraid to invite you if they think no one else does. Sometimes people will ask a prof at your school if you would come to their school, and the prof will then ask you. To heck with that. Just say that if they want to talk to you, they should deal with you directly.

The danger of rumors can be summed up by the following story. At ACR in 2003, I was having a beer with someone who confessed, “you know, my friend X at school Y told me that they want to hire you, but they’re afraid your wife won’t move to Z”. I was single.

ADDENDUM
Have your own advice to add? Want more detail on specific parts of the process? Let me know. dan at dangoldstein dot com.

May 29, 2007

A new and different kind of journal

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APPLIED ECONOMICS RESEARCH BULLETIN

aerb

Decision Science News looks with intrigue bordering on fascination at a new chimera called Applied Economics Research Bulletin.

Some of the unusual features:

Happy being a rest stop on the way to established journals – As they say “We expect that manuscripts published in the Applied Economics Research Bulletin will, in some cases, form the foundations for more refined works that will subsequently be submitted to other leading journals.”

Immediate dissemination – Papers can be published within days or even hours of submission

No manuscript style – Writers rejoice. Also nice for attracting interdisciplinary authors.

No Editor – Just article editors, no pukka sahib.

Non-commercial, open access – Web-based, no subscription fee, author keeps the copyright

Big names – The advisory board and associate editors list includes some very big names in economics and marketing.

Decision Science News’ nutshell:

Applied Economics Research Bulletin – It’s like SSRN meets peer review.

May 22, 2007

There is no c in Brunswik

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ANNUAL MEETING OF THE BRUNSWIK SOCIETY, LONG BEACH, CA, NOV 15-16, 2007

brunswik

The 23rd Annual International Meeting of the Brunswik Society will be held on Thursday and Friday, November 15-16, 2007 in Long Beach, California, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel. The program begins at 12:00 noon on Thursday afternoon, and ends at 6:00 Friday afternoon.

We invite papers and/or panel discussion proposals on any theoretical or empirical/applied topic directly related to Egon Brunswik’s theoretical lens model framework and method of representative design, including approaches based on Brunswikian principles. Please send a brief abstract (75-100 words), and indicate whether the paper/discussion is theoretical or empirical, to Jim Holzworth by Friday, July 13th. Kindly respect this submission due date. Due to an increase in number of submissions, we cannot guarantee a presenting slot to those who do not meet the submission deadline. Our time is limited, so we apologize in advance if some papers cannot be scheduled this year. Meeting organizers are Jim Holzworth (jim.holzworth at uconn.edu) and Mandeep Dhami (mkd25 at cam.ac.uk). The meeting is held concurrently with the Psychonomic Society Annual Meeting and just before the Judgment and Decision Society meeting. More details about the 2007 meeting, including registration instructions, will be posted on the Brunswik Society website, at http://brunswik.org.

May 16, 2007

The first 10 years of online consumer research

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ACR PRE-CONFERENCE: CONSUMERS ONLINE. DEADLINE JUNE 1, 2007.

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The Internet in general, and Amazon.com in particular, is still Chapter One. You’re asking me about my story, and it’s still the very beginning. –Jeff Bezos

Association for Consumer Research Pre-Conference on Consumers Online: Ten Years Later. Thursday, October 25, 2007. The Peabody Memphis. Memphis, TN

It has been about 10 years since the first research about consumer behavior in online environments was originally published. What have we learned in that time? What frameworks, theories and facts have emerged? What new questions need to be explored?

The Center for Excellence in E-Business at Columbia Business School and the Sloan
Center for Internet Retailing at the University of California, Riverside are jointly sponsoring a pre-conference, in conjunction with the 2007 Association for Consumer Research Annual North American Conference, to address these questions. The goals of this pre-conference are to (1) summarize existing knowledge (2) present state-of-the-art results, methods and concepts and (3) hopefully set exciting directions for future research. Examples of topics that presentations might address include, but are certainly not limited to:

• How does the web influence consumer behavior offline? What is the relationship between information search on and off-line and purchasing?
• What meaning do consumers ascribe to the Internet in their daily lives?
• What consumer research can be done uniquely on the web? Are there new methods that are made possible by the web?
• What is the nature of community on the web? Do virtual communities and social networking present a fundamentally novel form of word-of-mouth and social networking?
• How has data on the web changed the idea of consumer search? Have we seen, as predicted, a decrease in price dispersion? Have markets become more efficient? Have more niche markets emerged?
• What elements of online customer experience are most important in influencing consumer decision making and online purchase behavior?
• What is the latest thinking on predicting and modeling consumer search and purchasing?

Program Committee:
Randy Bucklin (UCLA), John Deighton (Harvard), Kristin Diehl (USC), Andrew Gershoff (Michigan), Dan Goldstein (LBS), Gerald Haubl (Alberta), John Lynch (Duke), Wendy Moe (Maryland), Jaideep Sengupta (HKUST), Venky Shankar (Texas A&M)

Submission Details: Deadline is June 1, 2007 to submit an abstract.
Consumer behavior researchers should submit a 500- word abstract for consideration by the program committee, plus a 100-word abstract which will be listed on the program in the event of acceptance, at www.cebiz.org/acr. Both abstracts should be submitted in the same file. All submissions must be submitted electronically through www.cebiz.org/acr and must be received by June 1, 2007 to be considered. Participants will be notified by June 30.

Registration Details: Deadline is October 1, 2007 to register for the conference. The registration fee is $150.00 and includes breakfast, lunch, all breaks and attendance at the pre-conference. Attendees must register through http://webpay.ucr.edu/. Conference attendance will be limited to 100 attendees, so please be sure to register well in advance of the October 1, 2007 deadline!

Hotel Details: The Peabody Memphis. A limited number of hotel rooms have been set aside at the ACR rate of $174.00 plus tax for the pre-conference. Please contact the hotel directly to book your room. The Peabody Memphis www.peabodymemphis.com 149 Union Avenue, Memphis, TN 901-529-4000; 1-800-732-2639. Conference Code: 286824.

Conference Co-Organizers:
• Donna Hoffman, Chancellor’s Chair & Co-Director, Sloan Center for Internet Retailing, UC Riverside, donna.hoffman at ucr.edu
• Eric J. Johnson, Norman Eig Professor of Business & Director CEBiz, Columbia University, ejj3 at columbia.edu

May 10, 2007

The pandemic pandemic

Filed in Encyclopedia ,Research News
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IMPACTFUL, IMPROBABLE EVENTS CAPTURE THE IMAGINATION

pandie

Decision Science News is noticing how attention is turning towards the unlikely events that can change the world.

Institutions are undergoing epidemic preparations. Harvard Business Review has an feature on pandemics with two sections written by noted decision science researcher Baruch Fischhoff. A podcast is available here.

A book on high-impact black swans debuted at number five on the NY Times best seller list.

Popular television shows 24 depict again and again how a few individuals, without special titles or power, can topple governments and kill millions.

Decision researchers are investigating how people infer the likelihood of low-probability events from experience and description.

Is it a pandemic pandemic?

May 3, 2007

SCP 2008 New Orleans

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SOCIETY FOR CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY ANNUAL CONFERENCE FEB 21-23, 2008

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The Society for Consumer Psychology (SCP) will be holding its Annual Winter Conference on February 21-23 at the Omni Royal Orleans Hotel, New Orleans, LA. The SCP conference provides a relatively intimate forum, providing opportunities for a high level of interaction among participants interested in the integration of psychology and consumer research. This year’s conference will be held in the heart of the historic French Quarter in New Orleans, and the city is back and livelier than ever so the conference promises to be a memorable one.

We are seeking proposals for original competitive papers, special topic sessions, and working papers for presentation at the conference. In order to encourage a diverse set of ideas and approaches to consumer psychology, the topic areas are not limited by a particular theme or application. We also welcome diverse methodologies, including experimental research, survey research, conceptual and/or theoretical developments, ethnography, or other methods relevant to the study of consumer psychology.

SUBMISSION INFORMATION:
All submissions, reviewing, and notification regarding SCP 2008 will be conducted electronically through the conference website. (Note: the URL for the conference is currently under construction but will be posted soon on the SCP home website: http://fisher.osu.edu/marketing/scp/). The conference website will provide an interface for reviewers and submitters, eliminating the need for e-mail submissions, as well as additional information about the conference.

SUBMISSION DEADLINE:
All submissions for competitive papers, special topic sessions and working papers are due by August 3, 2007. Notification of acceptances will be sent in early October. The conference website will be available for submissions between Friday, June 15, 2007, and midnight PST of the new deadline, Thursday August 9, 2007.

HOTEL INFORMATION:
Omni Royal Orleans Hotel, 621 Saint Louis St., New Orleans, LA 70140; Phone: (504) 529-5333; Fax (504) 529-7089. Nestled in the heart of the French Quarter, this AAA Four-Diamond luxury hotel is just moments from the excitement of Bourbon Street and Jackson Square and features an artful mélange of 19th century artifacts and the essence of Creole charm. http://www.omnihotels.com/FindAHotel/NewOrleansRoyalOrleans.aspx

CONFERENCE CO-CHAIRS
Maria Cronley
Dhananjay (DJ) Nayakankuppam
If you have questions, please email the conference co-chairs at: SCP2008@gmail.com

April 25, 2007

The Black Swan

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EXTREME AND HIGH IMPACT UNCERTAINTY


tbs

Nassim Taleb’s new book The Black Swan is out now. Early reviews are in:

The first chapter free online at the New York Times.