POLITIMETRICS

Lionel Page (University of Westminster), in conjunction with Paul Antoine Chevalier (Paris School of Economics), Dan Goldstein (London Business School & Decision Science News), Leighton Vaughan Williams (Nottingham Trent University), and Peter Urwin (University of Westminster) are pleased to bring you Politimetrics.com a Web site that uses prediction markets to forecast election outcomes and more.

What candidate would have the highest probability to win the presidential election if nominated?

What candidate has the program which is more likely to foster growth, reduce unemployment and crime?

All these crucial questions for the voters in this 2008 US election cannot be answered using traditional polls. Using prediction markets in a innovative way, the website Politimetrics.com proposes answers to these questions.

Politimetrics.com presents the estimation of the the conditional probability of success of each candidate if nominated/elected. The numbers are estimated in real time, directly from the prices on specific Intrade contracts.

At this stage of the primary campaign, politimetrics proposes the best answer available the question: “who are the candidates the most likely to win the presidential election if nominated?” Later on in the campaign, we plan to present an even more interesting answer: “which candidate would be the most successful president on a list of issues?” To do so, we have proposed to Intrade a series of specific contracts (listed under the section “Impact of Next President” on their website). Eventually, we hope to be able to answer to questions like:

Is Hilary Clinton more likely to be more effective in managing the economy than John McCain?

Is Mitt Romney more likely to decrease crime than Barack Obama?

SYMPOSIUM ON STATISTICAL CHALLENGES IN ELECTRONIC COMMERCE RESEARCH

2008 Symposium on Statistical Challenges in eCommerce Research

Call for Papers

We invite submissions to the Fourth Symposium on Statistical Challenges in eCommerce Research (SCECR 08) to be hosted in New York City by NYU Stern’s Center for Digital Economy Research, on May 18th and 19th, 2008.

Symposium Theme: Social Networking and User-Generated Content

Our focus this year is on the statistical challenges and opportunities involving Web 2.0 applications and data. Today’s Web is increasingly interactive and networked, providing a platform for consumers to disseminate information about products, vendors, buyers and sellers, as well as about themselves and their social connections, through the use of social networking sites, blogs, wikis and interactive opinion forums. Our workshop’s theme is based on this development, since it causes the data that are available to ecommerce researchers to be increasingly user-generated, and increasingly networked.

We envision the research presented in the symposium will discuss both the opportunities and challenges relating to the statistical analysis of these new forms of ecommerce data and its use as the basis for empirical research about and facilitated by electronic commerce. As just a few examples of these opportunities and challenges:

* Characteristics of user-generated reviews and reviewers can affect ecommerce demand; feedback in reputation systems can affect sellers’ pricing policies and the nature of competition; the attributes of user-generated search queries can affect the performance of search engine advertising, and the content of customer support dialogs can affect product design. There are immense possibilities for the creative use of these data in research. There are also significant opportunities to address statistical challenges that this use raises: on the econometric identification of how the presence of this content affects outcomes that are determined simultaneously with its generation, towards developing new statistical approaches underlying the automated analysis and mining of textual content, on effectively sampling the vast repositories of such user-generated text on the web, and towards understanding the process by which this content is generated by self-interested users.

* Networked data sets have powerful explanatory and predictive power in ecommerce research.

Social-network-based word-of-mouth marketing can affect user adoption, recommendation networks can affect the structure of ecommerce demand, and usage behaviors can be influenced by local networks of friends, employees or peers. Realizing the promise of such data in ecommerce research requires advances in techniques for sampling these data, creating new identification techniques for the use of such data in econometric analysis, developing collective inference methods for more robust predictive modeling and learning, interpreting the structural properties of networks in a statistically meaningful way, and modeling the evolution of networked data sets as a stochastic process. Beyond the symposium’s theme, we also welcome and encourage submissions that raise statistical challenges in other areas of ecommerce research. Frequent topics that past workshop presentations have studied include: interpreting data from online auctions; consumer profiling using web clickstreams; search advertising; methods and models for large dynamic ecommerce data sets; representative sampling from the Internet; analyzing pricing and piracy data for digital goods, and modeling/ mining spatial ecommerce data. More generally, SCECR aims to identify problems and research questions related to empirical research in electronic commerce by bringing together researchers from computer science, economics, information systems, marketing, statistics, and other related fields. We believe this confluence will help understand better how different research perspectives are connected to one another and how, together, they can achieve the modernization and enhancement of empirical research methods.

Submission Guidelines

Authors should submit abstracts of their work for consideration for the symposium (the abstracts should be about 2 pages in length). These abstracts should clearly highlight the statistical challenges that the presentation of the research will raise and/or address. If available, a link to a more detailed description of the research (for instance, a working paper) can be included.

These abstracts should be e-mailed to scecr2008@stern.nyu.edu by February 15, 2008. PDF is the preferred format. This is a work-in-progress symposium, so abstracts will be evaluated based on their alignment with the symposium’s objective of furthering our understanding of statistical challenges in ecommerce research, the anticipated contribution of the research they summarize, and their potential for stimulating discussion at the symposium. Decisions on acceptance will be made by March 5, 2008.

SCECR 2008 Co-Chairs

* Anindya Ghose, aghose at stern.nyu.edu
* Foster Provost, fprovost at stern.nyu.edu
* Arun Sundararajan, asundara at stern.nyu.edu

For additional information about SCECR 08, visit the symposium website at:

http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/ceder/events.cfm?doc_id=7909

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=2080084585&size=m

THE SOCIAL LEARNING STRATEGIES TOURNAMENT

Kevin Laland and Luke Rendell have received funding from the European Commission to organize a major international multi-disciplinary tournament on the evolution of social learning, inspired by Robert Axelrod’s famous Prisoner’s Dilemma tournaments on the evolution of cooperation.

In recent years there has been a lot of interest (spanning several research fields, but especially economics, anthropology, and biology) in the problem of how best to acquire valuable information from others. Mathematical and computational solutions to this problem are starting to emerge, often using game-theoretical approaches. We feel the time is right for such a tournament, a sentiment shared by leading researchers in the field who are enthusiastic about this project. We have set up a committee of world-leading scientists as experts to help us design the tournament (Rob Boyd, Marc Feldman, Magnus Enquist, Kimmo Erikkson) and other leading authorities in this area of science, including Axelrod, have been advising us.

In the competition, entrants will submit behavioural strategies detailing how to respond to the problem of resource gain in a complex, variable environment in terms of combinations of individual and social learning. Where social learning is involved, entrants will be required to specify effective rules (e.g. conform, imitate the most successful individual, copy in proportion to each demonstrator’s payoff, copy when dissatisfied, etc). Entered strategies will be evaluated in two stages, with good performers in pair-wise contests going forward to an all-against-all melee. The author(s) of the strategy that performs best overall will be presented with a cash prize of 10,000 euros at the European Human Behaviour and Evolution Society meeting, in St. Andrews, U.K. in April 2009.

The competition is now running, and has a closing date of June 30 2008 and active website: http://www.intercult.su.se/cultaptation/tournament.php

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=170030408

RESEARCH SCIENTIST IN COGNITION AND DECISION MAKING AT MAX PLANCK – BERLIN

Decision Science News got its start at the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition in Berlin, Germany and can attest that it is one of the sweetest, if not the sweetest, research posts on the planet. All research, no teaching, and next to zero admin. The rank is equivalent to assistant professor. The well-heeled institute pays for all travel and research costs. The support staff to faculty ratio is incredibly high. In addition, Berlin speaks English, has great nightlife, and sits between Eastern and Western Europe.

The Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, under the direction of Gerd Gigerenzer, is seeking applicants for a research scientist position equivalent to an assistant professor. The position is for 6 years (renewable every 2 years) beginning August 2008, but earlier or later start dates are possible. Salary depends on experience. Candidates must have a PhD. Except for mentoring doctoral students and postdoctoral fellows, there are no teaching requirements.

Candidates should be interested in studying the cognitive mechanisms underlying bounded, social, and ecological rationality in real-world domains. Current and past researchers in our group have backgrounds in psychology, cognitive science, economics, mathematics, biology, and computer science to name but a few. The center provides excellent resources, including support staff and equipment for conducting experiments and computer simulations, generous travel support for conferences, and, most importantly, the time to think.

For more information about our group please visit our homepage at www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/abc or write researchscientist2008 (at) mpib-berlin.mpg.de. The working language of the center is English, and knowledge of German is not necessary for living in Berlin and enjoying the active life and cultural riches of this city. We strongly encourage applications from women, and members of minority groups. The Max Planck Society is committed to employing more individuals with disabilities and especially encourages them to apply.

Please submit applications (consisting of a cover letter describing research interests, curriculum vitae, up to five reprints, and 3 letters of recommendation) by January 21st 2008 to ensure consideration. Applications will be accepted until the position is filled. The preferred method of submission is a single PDF file for the cover letter and CV, plus PDF copies of the reprints e-mailed to researchscientist2008 (at) mpib-berlin.mpg.de. Alternatively, they can be mailed to Ms. Wiebke Moeller, Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Letters of recommendation can be emailed or mailed.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=314832330

DEC 2007 SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER PUBLISHED

Society for Judgment and Decision Making Newsletter Editor Dan Goldstein reports that the final SJDM newsletter of 2007 is ready for download and that it is packed full of conference announcements and job opportunities, especially postdocs.

http://www.sjdm.org/files/newsletters/07-dec.pdf

Enjoy!

LAST CALL FOR 2007

The Society for Judgment and Decision-Making Newsletter, if you are not familiar with it, is a great place to go to learn about jobs, conferences, and ideas in the psychological study of decision making. Back issues here.

The next issue of the Newsletter (to be issued by year’s end) is accepting submissions, for example:

* Conference, workshop, summer institute announcements (with deadlines after early January)
* Prize announcements
* Essays (< 500 words)
* Book reviews
* Job postings
* Photos
* Haiku
* Links to Web sites
* Other topics of interest to Society members

Please send submissions as plain text or common word processor formats to editor Dan Goldstein (dan at dangoldstein dot com)

JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING AT SPSP, ALBUQUERQUE, NM, 2008

The Society for Personality and Social Psychology will again this year host a host of preconferences, including one on the world’s greatest topic, judgment and decision making (JDM). The program features some fine speakers:

Sheena Iyengar
Nicholas Epley
Jennifer Aaker
Alexander Todorov
David Dunning
Jennifer Beer
Lee Ross
Barbara Fredrickson

…and is organized by the team of Ayelet Fishbach, Peter McGraw, Neal Roese, and Kelly See.

Visit the SPSP 2008 JDM Preconference Web Site

MANAGEMENT PROFESSORSHIPS AT DUKE’S FUQUA SCHOOL

Decision Science News has the utmost respect for Duke and its many great JDMers such as Soll, Larrick, Ariely, Payne, Clemen, Fitzsimons and more.

The Management and Organizations Area at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University is seeking tenure-track faculty for Fall 2008 appointment. We will consider candidates at all levels, but are especially seeking appointments at the associate, full or chair level. We are interested in candidates who have research and teaching strength in topics such as decision making, teams, trust, justice, and organizational issues. We are also seeking faculty at the Full or Chair level with specialties relevant to leadership and/or ethics. Applicants should (depending upon level) demonstrate achievement of, or potential for, excellence in research and in teaching fulltime MBA and executive MBA students. Accomplished academic background in psychology, sociology, organizational behavior, organizational theory, or related fields is required.

The Management and Organizations Area at the Fuqua School of Business: The Management and Organizations Area and the Fuqua School as a whole have an excellent, growing faculty that undertakes its research and teaching activities throughout the world. The tenure-track members of the Management and Organizations area include Jonathon Cummings, Greg Fischer, Rick Larrick, Allan Lind, Patty Linville, John Payne, Ashleigh Rosette, Blair Sheppard, Sim Sitkin, Jack Soll, Kimberly Wade-Benzoni. Two Research Centers – The Center on Leadership and Ethics (COLE) and the Center on Decision Research — are led by our faculty. Faculty are also involved in our centers involving International Business, Social Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Health Sector Management, and Environmental Issues. We enjoy many ties to scholars throughout the school and across Duke University. As a result, Fuqua provides a rich personal and intellectual environment. Fuqua’s web page provides links throughout our school, university, and communities (www.fuqua.duke.edu).

Community : The “Triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill and surrounding communities is a wonderful place, frequently cited as one of the best places in the United States to live. Our region in North Carolina is one of the fastest growing and most dynamics parts of the U.S., with an outstanding variety of arts, social, recreational, educational, and intellectual opportunities.

Research Environment : We have a supportive research culture that is driven by the goal of outstanding scholarship, at all levels of the faculty. The research environment is rich with opportunities for field research in addition to larger sample empirical work. Many local and global organizations have key locations at Research Triangle Park and elsewhere in the Triangle area, and there are many opportunities for Fuqua faculty members to conduct research at dynamic companies and social organizations. In addition, our strong Executive Education and multi-faceted MBA degree programs provide many opportunities to link with companies throughout the world. The school provides faculty members with strong research support, including summer research funding, research assistants from our doctoral programs, world-class colleagues in departments and schools throughout Duke University, and strong linkages with outstanding faculty members and doctoral students at UNC-Chapel Hill and other nearby universities.

Teaching : Our teaching environment is innovative and exciting. The Fuqua School has five MBA degree programs, plus extensive open-enrollment Executive Education and Corporate Education programs. Faculty members generally teach in the programs that most interest them. Business Week, the Financial Times, and other business publications have ranked our programs among the top in the world in recent years. Management teaching plays a central role in all our programs and there is ample room for developing new courses and modules in any program.

Interested candidates should send a vita, letter of application, three letters of recommendation, and representative samples of research (publications, working papers, or dissertation proposals). We will start reviewing applications on December 3, 2007.

Applications must be submitted electronically:

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/areas/management/managementrecruit.html
Recruiting Coordinator: Beverly James, Management Area Recruiting Coordinator, Fuqua School of Business, Box 90120 , Duke University , Durham , North Carolina , USA , 27708.

Duke University is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer

SJDM ELECTS NEXT PRESIDENT AND EXECUTIVE BOARD MEMBER

The results of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making elections are in:

• The newly elected president is Dan Ariely.

• The newly elected executive board member is Dan Goldstein.

Though this suggests conspiracy, we will remind readers that a recent analysis of the SJDM member directory (p. 7) found the most common SJDM first name to be, you guessed it, Daniel.

At of the recent conference, Jon Baron handed over the presidency to Michael Birnbaum who will serve until Dan Ariely takes over in Fall 2008.

2008 SUMMER INSTITUTE IN INFORMED PATIENT CHOICE

Patients make decisions about a matter that is very important to them, their health. New findings on the representation of information can improve decision making, and new tools, such as the Distribution Builder put these findings to work. It is a bright new era of informed patient choice. This coming summer, try to catch Dartmouth’s summer institute on the topic.

Interprofessional Education in Decision Support
Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
June 25 – July 2, 2008

The Background Motivation for SIIPC 2008:
• Patient-centered care could be improved if the different members of multidisciplinary health care teams can work together in providing high-quality Decision Support /Patients’ Decision Aids (DS/PtDAs).
• Therefore, we need to develop, test, and implement effective, sustainable interprofessional training programs to teach DS/PtDAs as a clinical skill.
• To do this well, we need to build collaborative links between experts in DS / PtDAs and experts in inter-professional education.

The SIIPC 2008 Format:
Throughout the week, 12 Faculty & 70 selected Fellows will:
• Identify promising theories, methods, and outcomes evidence for designing educational programs for effective interprofessional training in the clinical practice of DS /PtDAs.
• Compare different models for implementing interprofessional clinical training programs in DS/PtDAs.
• Debate whether there’s a need to certify clinicians in the practice of DS/PtDAs, and, if so, identify the key principles for establishing a sustainable process for certification.
• Develop collaborative links among scientists who are prepared to investigate key basic and applied problems in the field of interprofessional education about the clinical practice of DS/DAs.
This discussion, debate, and exploration will take place in lectures, in small workgroups, and in interactive electronically-supported research “labs”.

Applying for a Summer Institute Fellowship
For application forms and information about the submission process, visit: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~cecs/cic/2008/index.html and click on “Applications”
The application deadline is January 15, 2008. Applicants’ submissions will be reviewed by the Planning Committee. Selected Fellows will be notified in April, 2008. Fellows will be provided with housing on the Dartmouth campus, some meals, and course materials.

Supported By:
The Center for Informed Choice at The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy & Clinical Practice The Agency for Health Care Research and Quality.*

*Funding for this conference was made possible in part by 1R13HS017378-01 from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). The views expressed in written conference materials or publications and by speakers and moderators do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the Department of Health and Human Services; nor does mention of trade names, commercial practices, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.