Adult decision making competence scale (RC1)

For more information, contact Andrew Parker

Instructions:

Each of the following problems presents a choice between two options. Each problem is presented with a scale ranging from 1 (representing one option) through 6 (representing the other option). For each item, please circle the number on the scale that best reflects your relative preference between the two options.

Problem 1

Imagine that recent evidence has shown that a pesticide is threatening the lives of 1,200 endangered animals. Two response options have been suggested:

If Option A is used, 600 animals will be saved for sure.

If Option B is used, there is a 75% chance that 800 animals will be saved, and a 25% chance that no animals will be saved.

Which option do you recommend to use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 2

Because of changes in tax laws, you may get back as much as $1200 in income tax. Your accountant has been exploring alternative ways to take advantage of this situation. He has developed two plans:

If Plan A is adopted, you will get back $400 of the possible $1200.

If Plan B is adopted, you have a 33% chance of getting back all $1200, and a 67% chance of getting back no money.

Which plan would you use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 3

Imagine that in one particular state it is projected that 1000 students will drop out of school during the next year. Two programs have been proposed to address this problem, but only one can be implemented. Based on other states’ experiences with the programs, estimates of the outcomes that can be expected from each program can be made. Assume for purposes of this decision that these estimates of the outcomes are accurate and are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 400 of the 1000 students will stay in school.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 40% chance that all 1000 students will stay in school and 60% chance that none of the 1000 students will stay in school.

Which program would you favor for implementation?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 4

Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 33% chance that 600 people will be saved, and a 67% chance that no people will be saved.

Which program do you recommend to use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 5

Imagine that your doctor tells you that you have a cancer that must be treated. Your choices are as follows:

Surgery: Of 100 people having surgery, 90 live through the operation, and 34 are alive at the end of five years.

Radiation therapy: Of 100 people having radiation therapy, all live through the treatment, and 22 are alive at the end of five years.

Which treatment would you choose?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose surgery choose radiation

Problem 6

Imagine that your client has $6,000 invested in the stock market. A downturn in the economy is occurring. You have two investment strategies that you can recommend under the existing circumstances to preserve your client’s capital.

If strategy A is followed, $2,000 of your client’s investment will be saved.

If strategy B is followed, there is a 33% chance that the entire $6,000 will be saved, and a 67% chance that none of the principal will be saved.

Which of these two strategies would you favor?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 7

Imagine a hospital is treating 32 injured soldiers, who are all expected to lose one leg. There are two doctors that can help the soldiers, but only one can be hired:

If Doctor A is hired, 20 soldiers will keep both legs.

If Doctor B is hired, there is a 63% chance that all soldiers keep both legs and a 37% chance that nobody will save both legs.

Which doctor do you recommend?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Instructions:

Each of the following problems ask you to rate your judgment of a product or a situation. Each problem is presented with a scale ranging from 1 (representing the worst rating) through 6 (representing the best rating). For each problem, please circle the number on the scale that best reflects your judgment.

Problem 1

Imagine that a type of condom has a 95% success rate. That is, if you have sex with someone who has the AIDS virus, there is a 95% chance that this type of condom will prevent you from being exposed to the AIDS virus.

Should the government allow this type of condom to be advertised as "an effective method for lowering the risk of AIDS?"

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely no Definitely yes

Problem 2

Imagine the following situation. You are entertaining a special friend by inviting them for dinner. You are making your favorite lasagna dish with ground beef. Your roommate goes to the grocery store and purchases a package of ground beef for you. The label says 80% lean ground beef.

What’s your evaluation of the quality of this ground beef?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very low Very high

Problem 3

In a recent confidential survey completed by graduating seniors, 35% of those completing the survey stated that they had never cheated during their college career.

Considering the results of the survey, how would you rate the incidence of cheating at your university?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very low Very high

Problem 4

As R&D manager, one of your project teams has come to you requesting an additional $100,000 in funds for a project you instituted several months ago. The project is already behind schedule and over budget, but the team still believes it can be successfully completed. You currently have $500,000 remaining in your budget unallocated, but which must carry you for the rest of the fiscal year. Lowering the balance by an additional $100,000 might jeopardize flexibility to respond to other opportunities.

Evaluating the situation, you believe there is a fair chance the project will not succeed, in which case the additional funding would be lost; if successful, however, the money would be well spent. You also noticed that of the projects undertaken by this team, 30 of the last 50 have been successful.

What is the likelihood you would fund the request?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very unlikely Very likely

Problem 5

Suppose a student got 90% correct in the mid-term exam and 70% correct in the final-term exam, what would be your evaluations of this student’s performance?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very poor Very good

Problem 6

Imagine that a woman parked illegally. After talking to her, you believe that there is a 20% chance that she did not know she parked illegally.

With this in mind, how much of a fine do you believe this woman deserves?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Minimum fine Maximum fine

Problem 7

Imagine that a new technique has been developed to treat a particular kind of cancer. This technique has a 50% chance of success, and is available at the local hospital.

A member of your immediate family is a patient at the local hospital with this kind of cancer. Would you encourage him or her to undergo treatment using this technique?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely no Definitely yes

Instructions:

The following problems ask whether it is sometimes OK to do different things.

For each question, please indicate whether in your opinion the answer is yes or no.

1. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to steal under certain circumstances?

Yes No

2. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to smoke cigarettes?

Yes No

3. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to commit a crime which could put you in jail?

Yes No

4. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to keep things you find in the street?

Yes No

5. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to experiment with marijuana?

Yes No

6. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to use your fists to resolve a conflict?

Yes No

7. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to drink and drive?

Yes No

8. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… to yell and argue to solve a conflict?

Yes No

9. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to hold the door open for people?

Yes No

10. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to tell the police when you witness a crime?

Yes No

11. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to give directions to someone who is lost?

Yes No

12. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to be on time for appointments?

Yes No

13. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to return something you borrowed?

Yes No

14. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to keep secrets that a friend told you?

Yes No

15. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to return phone calls right away?

Yes No

16. Do you think it is sometimes OK …

… not to spend time with friends in need?

Yes No

Instructions:

This survey presents true/false questions about various aspects of everyday life. Please indicate, for each statement, whether you believe it to be true or false, by circling the “true” or “false”. You may think that some items do not have a clear-cut answer. For those items, please try to give the answer that would be true in general, or in most cases.

Please read through the following examples to find out more about this survey.

Example 1:

Pittsburgh's hockey team is the Bruins.

We want you to do two things:

First, answer the question. In this example, you might think “No, it's the Penguins. So the statement is false.” Then you would circle ‘False’.

Pittsburgh's hockey team is the Bruins.

This statement is [ True / False].

Second, think about how sure you are of your answer. Give a number from 50% to 100%. In other words, what is the percent chance that you are right? Circle one of the numbers on the scale.

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

If your answer is a total guess, circle 50%. This means that there is a 50% chance that you are right, and a 50% chance that you are wrong. If you are absolutely sure, circle 100%. If you aren’t sure, then circle a number in between, to show how sure you are.

In this example, you might think “I'm absolutely sure it's false, so 100%.” So you would circle 100%.

Pittsburgh's hockey team is the Bruins.

This statement is [ True / False].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

Please read the examples below. They show answers given by other people. Read them closely, and make sure you understand their answers.

Example 2:

Thanksgiving Day is on the fourth Thursday of November.

• Yes, I think that’s when Thanksgiving is. I would say TRUE.

• I’m pretty sure, but it might be on the third Thursday of November, so 80%.

Your answer would look like this:

Thanksgiving Day is on the fourth Thursday of November.

This statement is [ True / False].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

Example 3:

Amman is the capital of Jordan.

• I really don’t know, so I’ll just take a guess. I’ll say, uh, TRUE.

• I’m guessing, so 50%.

Your answer would look like this:

Amman is the capital of Jordan.

This statement is [ True / False].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

Example 4:

The Hudson River doesn’t run past New York City.

• Oh yes it does! I think it’s one of the rivers. So that’s FALSE.

• I’m almost positive that’s false, so I’ll say 90%.

Your answer would look like this:

The Hudson River doesn’t run past New York City.

This statement is [ True / False].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

Example 5:

Bill Clinton doesn’t have a beard.

• That’s right, he doesn’t. TRUE.

• I think that’s right, but I’m not sure, he might have grown one. I’ll say 70%.

Your answer would look like this:

Bill Clinton doesn’t have a beard.

This statement is [ True / False].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

just guessing absolutely sure

If you have any questions, please ask now.

For each of the following statements, circle true or false to indicate your answer. Then circle a number on the scale to indicate how sure you are of your answer. The scale ranges from 50% (meaning that you were just guessing) to 100% (meaning that you were absolutely sure).

1. Many smokers use the nicotine in cigarettes to treat depression.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

2. Stress makes it easier to form bad habits.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

3. You can take wrinkles out of your clothes by putting them in the dryer with a damp towel.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

4. After a fight with your partner, you should not focus on who was to blame.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

5. There is no way to improve your memory.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

6. The grace period on your credit card is the amount of time you do not have to pay interest on outstanding payments.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

7. Red wine stains are easier to remove than beer stains.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

8. Muscles do not burn calories when you are at rest.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

9. Alcohol causes dehydration.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

10. Problems with in-laws contribute to more than 30% of divorces.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

11. Homosexual couples are not legally allowed to adopt.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

12. A promotion means that you will get a more satisfying job.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

13. IRS forms are available on-line.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

14. Procrastination is worse when you work in a cluttered environment.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

15. A venture capital fund invests in new businesses by providing startup capital.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

16. It is wise to handle all negotiations yourself, even if your opponent uses a lawyer.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

17. Carbohydrates are fattening no matter how much you eat of them.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

18. Young people face few stereotypes when looking for a job.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

19. It can be instructive for children to see their parents resolve a fight.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

20. There are nonprofit organizations that help people with debt counseling.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

21. Assertive behavior makes your brain experience an increase in pleasure.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

22. Credit card companies can offer lower payments if you can come up with a lump sum settlement.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

23. Contracting a sexually transmitted disease is not an automatic sign that your partner has had an affair.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

24. Some sexually transmitted diseases can cause infertility.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

25. Self-employed people pay the same amount of taxes as people who work for an employer.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

26. When buying a new home, there is little need to have it inspected before you buy it.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

27. Creating a routine is an important step in getting unpleasant work done.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

28. Once you have experienced an event, your memory of it can not be changed.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

29. Meditation slows the heart rate.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

30. If you get into an auto accident, let the other person take the lead in handling the details.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

31. There is no way you can negotiate a lower rate with a credit card company.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

32. Obesity increases your risk of type 2 diabetes.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

33. Talking about sex helps romantic relationships.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

34. Hard evidence is lacking that acupuncture helps you to quit smoking.

This statement is [True / False ].

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
just guessing absolutely sure

Instructions:

Please read the practice problems on this page carefully before going on to the problems on the next page.

Imagine Chris is going to buy a DVD player with the $369 he received for his birthday. He wants to find out how the DVD players that are available for that price compare to each other. A magazine rated DVD players on each of five features as follows, where higher is better:

For example, two DVD players and their ratings are listed in the table below:

The following examples use the table above. Please read each carefully.

Example 1. Chris selects the DVD player with the highest rating in Programming Options.

Which one of the presented DVD player would Chris prefer? ________ A_____

Example 2. Chris only wants a DVD player with a sound quality that is rated higher than 4.

Which one of the presented DVD player would Chris prefer? _____ none_____

Example 3. Chris only wants the best in Picture Quality.

Which two of the presented DVD players would Chris prefer? ___A___, and ___B___

The following questions are about other people choosing between DVD players, like the ones above. Please read each question carefully, because they ask for different answers. For each question, think about how each person makes their choice, then pick the DVD they choose. But be careful, because the DVD players will change from question to question.

Question 1:

Brian selects the DVD player with the highest number of ratings greater than “Medium”

Which one of the presented DVD players would Brian prefer? ________________

Question 2:

Sally first selects the DVD players with the best Sound Quality. From the selected DVD players, she then selects the best on Picture Quality. Then, if there is still more than one left to choose from, she selects the one best on Programming Options.

Which one of the presented DVD players would Sally prefer? ________________

Question 3:

Pat doesn’t want to read through the entire table. He decides to read the table row by row until he finds the very first DVD player that has no ratings below “Medium.” He will just choose that DVD player.

Which one of the presented DVD players would Pat prefer? ________________

Question 4:

LaToya only wants a DVD player that got a “Very High” rating on Reliability of Brand.

Which one of the presented DVD players LaToya prefer? ________________

Question 5:

From the DVD players with the best available Picture Quality, Tricia selects the DVD players with the lowest number of ratings below “Medium.” If there is more than one DVD player left to choose from, she then picks the one that has the best rating on “Reliability of Brand.”

Which one of the presented DVD players would Tricia prefer? ________________

Question 6:

Lisa wants the DVD player with the highest average rating across features.

Which one of the presented DVD players would Lisa prefer? ________________

Question 7:

Andy wants the DVD player with the highest average rating he can get while still making sure to keep the best rating on Sound Quality.

Which one of the presented DVD players would Andy prefer? ________________

Question 8:

Shane wants no DVD players that score below “Medium” on Picture Quality, no DVD players that score below “Medium” on Sound Quality, and no DVD players that score “Very Low” on any other feature.

Which two of the presented DVD players would Shane prefer? _______ and _______

Question 9:

Tyrone wants a DVD player that either has a “Very High” rating for Programming Options, or one that scores at least “Medium” on every feature.

Which three of the presented DVD players would Tyrone prefer? _______, _______, and _______

Question 10:

Julie wants the best Reliability of Brand, but is willing to give up one point on Reliability of Brand for each increase of at least two points in the rating of Picture Quality. She isn’t concerned about the other features.

Which three of the presented DVD players would Julie prefer? _______, _______, and _______

Instructions:

Each of these questions asks for your best guess at the chance that something will happen in the future. They use the “probability” scale that you see below. To answer each question, please put a mark on the scale at one specific tick mark, as follows:

If you think that something has no chance of happening, mark it as having a 0% chance. If you think that something is certain to happen, mark it as having a 100% chance.

Just to make sure that you are comfortable with the scale, please answer the following practice questions.

What is the probability that you will eat pizza during the next year?

What is the probability that you will get the flu during the next year?

That is the end of the practice. If you have any questions, please ask them now.

A. The following questions ask about events that may happen some time

during the next year.

1. What is the probability that you will get into a car accident while driving during the next year?

2. What is the probability that you will have a cavity filled during the next year?

3. What is the probability that you will die (from any cause -- crime, illness, accident, and so on) during the next year?

4. What is the probability that someone will steal something from you during the next year?

5. What is the probability that you will move your permanent address to another state some time during the next year?

6. What is the probability that you will die in a terrorist attack during the next year?

7. What is the probability that someone will break into your home and steal something from you during the next year?

8. What is the probability that you will keep your permanent address in the same state during the next year?

9. What is the probability that you will visit a dentist, for any reason, during the next year?

10. What is the probability that your driving will be accident-free during the next year?

B. The following questions ask about events that may happen some time

during the next 5 years.

1. What is the probability that you will get into a car accident while driving during the next 5 years?

2. What is the probability that you will have a cavity filled during the next 5 years?

3. What is the probability that you will die (from any cause -- crime, illness, accident, and so on) during the next 5 years?

4. What is the probability that someone will steal something from you during the next 5 years?

5. What is the probability that you will move your permanent address to another state some time during the next 5 years?

6. What is the probability that you will die in a terrorist attack during the next 5 years?

7. What is the probability that someone will break into your home and steal something from you during the next 5 years?

8. What is the probability that you will keep your permanent address in the same state during the next 5 years?

9. What is the probability that you will visit a dentist, for any reason, during the next 5 years?

10. What is the probability that your driving will be accident-free during the next 5 years?

Instructions:

In each of the following problems, choose between flipping a coin and a sure thing. Or, if they both seem the same to you, choose "Doesn't Matter."

1. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $50 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

2. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $60 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

3. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $40 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

The next questions are about losses.

4. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $50 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

5. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $60 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

6. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $40 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

In each of the next questions, choose between flipping two coins and flipping one coin.

7. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, win $100 If Heads, win $50

Otherwise, win $0 If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

8. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, win $100 If Heads, win $60

Otherwise, win $0 If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

9. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, win $100 If Heads, win $40

Otherwise, win $0 If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

The next questions are about losses.

10. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, lose $100 If Heads, lose $50

Otherwise, lose $0 If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

11. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, lose $100 If Heads, lose $60

Otherwise, lose $0 If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

12. Which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Two Coins Flip One Coin Doesn't Matter to Me

If Two Heads, lose $100 If Heads, lose $40

Otherwise, lose $0 If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

Questions 13 - 18 are just like 7 - 12 above, but one coin was already flipped. It came up heads, so you now have the following choices:

13. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $50 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

14. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $60 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

15. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $40 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

The next questions are about losses.

16. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $50 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

17. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $60 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

18. If you had already flipped once and it came up heads, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip Second Coin Sure Loss Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $40 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

In each of the next questions, a coin will be flipped to see if you get a choice or not. Without knowing the result of the first flip, what would you choose in each of the following situations?

19. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, win $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $50 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

20. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, win $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $60 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

21. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, win $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, win $100 Win $40 for sure

If Tails, win $0

_______ _______ _______

The next questions are about losses.

22. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, lose $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $50 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

23. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, lose $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $60 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

24. First Flip:

Flip a Coin

If Heads, get the Choice below

If Tails, don't get the Choice below, lose $0

Choice: Before the first flip, which do you like best, (1), (2), or (3)?

(1) (2) (3)

Flip a Coin Sure Win Doesn't Matter to Me

If Heads, lose $100 Lose $40 for sure

If Tails, lose $0

_______ _______ _______

Instructions:

Each of the following problems presents a choice between two options. Each problem is presented with a scale ranging from 1 (representing one option) through 6 (representing the other option). For each item, please circle the number on the scale that best reflects your relative preference between the two options.

Problem 1

You are buying a gold ring on layaway for someone special. It costs $200 and you have already paid $100 on it, so you owe another $100. One day, you see in the paper that a new jewelry store is selling the same ring for only $90 as a special sale, and you can pay for it using layaway. The new store is across the street from the old one. If you decide to get the ring from the new store, you will not be able to get your money back from the old store, but you would save $10 overall.

Would you be more likely to continue paying at the old store or buy from the new store?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

continue paying at the old store buy from the new store

Problem 2

You enjoy playing tennis, but you really love bowling. You just became a member of a tennis club, and of a bowling club, both at the same time. The membership to your tennis club costs $200 per year and the membership to your bowling club $50 per year. During the first week of both memberships, you develop an elbow injury. It is painful to play either tennis or bowling. Your doctor tells you that the pain will continue for about a year.

Would you be more likely to play tennis or bowling in the next six months?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

play tennis play bowling

Problem 3

You have been looking forward to this year’s Halloween party. You have the right cape, the right wig, and the right hat. All week, you have been trying to perfect the outfit by cutting out a large number of tiny stars to glue to the cape and the hat, and you still need to glue them on. On the day of Halloween, you decide that the outfit looks better without all these stars you have worked so hard on.

Would you be more likely to wear the stars or go without?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

wear stars not wear stars

Problem 4

After a large meal at a restaurant, you order a big dessert with chocolate and ice cream. After a few bites you find you are full and you would rather not eat any more of it.

Would you be more likely to eat more or to stop eating it?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

eat more stop eating

Problem 5

You are in a hotel room for one night and you have paid $6.95 to watch a movie on pay TV. Then you discover that there is a movie you would much rather like to see on one of the free cable TV channels. You only have time to watch one of the two movies.

Would you be more likely to watch the movie on pay TV or on the free cable channel?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

watch pay TV watch free cable

Problem 6

You have been asked to give a toast at your friend’s wedding. You have worked for hours on this one story about you and your friend taking drivers’ education, but you still have some work to do on it. Then you realize that you could finish writing the speech faster if you start over and tell the funnier story about the dance lessons you took together.

Would you be more likely to finish the toast about driving or rewrite it to be about dancing?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

write about driving write about dancing

Problem 7

You decide to learn to play a musical instrument. After you buy an expensive cello, you find you are no longer interested. Your neighbor is moving and you are excited that she is leaving you her old guitar, for free. You’d like to learn how to play it.

Would you be more likely to practice the cello or the guitar?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

play cello play guitar

Problem 8

You and your friend are at a movie theater together. Both you and your friend are getting bored with the storyline. You’d hate to waste the money spent on the ticket, but you both feel that you would have a better time at the coffee shop next door. You could sneak out without other people noticing.

Would you be more likely to stay or to leave?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

stay leave

Problem 9

You and your friend have driven halfway to a resort. Both you and your friend feel sick. You both feel that you both would have a much better weekend at home. Your friend says it is "too bad" you already drove halfway, because you both would much rather spend the time at home. You agree.

Would you be more likely to drive on or turn back?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

drive on turn back

Problem 10

You are painting your bedroom with a sponge pattern in your favorite color. It takes a long time to do. After you finish two of the four walls, you realize you would have preferred the solid color instead of the sponge pattern. You have enough paint left over to redo the entire room in the solid color. It would take you the same amount of time as finishing the sponge pattern on the two walls you have left.

Would you be more likely to finish the sponge pattern or to redo the room in the solid color?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Most likely to Most likely to

finish sponge pattern redo with a solid color

Instructions:

Each of the following problems presents a choice between two options. Each problem is presented with a scale ranging from 1 (representing one option) through 6 (representing the other option). For each item, please circle the number on the scale that best reflects your relative preference between the two options.

Problem 1

Imagine a hospital is treating 32 injured soldiers, who are all expected to lose one leg. There are two doctors that can help the soldiers, but only one can be hired:

If Doctor A is hired, 12 soldiers will lose one leg.

If Doctor B is hired, there is a 63% chance that nobody loses a leg and a 37% chance that all lose a leg.

Which doctor do you recommend?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 2

Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 33% chance that nobody will die, and a 67% chance that 600 people will die.

Which program do you recommend to use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 2

Imagine that your client has $6,000 invested in the stock market. A downturn in the economy is occurring. You have two investment strategies that you can recommend under the existing circumstances to preserve your client’s capital.

If strategy A is followed, $4,000 of your client’s investment will be lost.

If strategy B is followed, there is a 33% chance that the nothing will be lost, and a 67% chance that $6,000 will be lost.

Which of these two strategies would you favor?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 4

Because of changes in tax laws, you may get back as much as $1200 in income tax. Your accountant has been exploring alternative ways to take advantage of this situation. He has developed two plans:

If Plan A is adopted, you will lose $800 of the possible $1200.

If Plan B is adopted, you have a 33% chance of losing none of the money, and a 67% chance of losing all $1200.

Which plan would you use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 5

Imagine that recent evidence has shown that a pesticide is threatening the lives of 1,200 endangered animals. Two response options have been suggested:

If Option A is used, 600 animals will be lost for sure.

If Option B is used, there is a 75% chance that 400 animals will be lost, and a 25% chance that 1,200 animals will be lost.

Which option do you recommend to use?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Problem 6

Imagine that your doctor tells you that you have a cancer that must be treated. Your choices are as follows:

Surgery: Of 100 people having surgery, 10 die because of the operation, and 66 die by the end of five years.

Radiation therapy: Of 100 people having radiation therapy, none die during the treatment, and 78 die by the end of five years.

Which treatment would you choose?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose surgery choose radiation

Problem 7

Imagine that in one particular state it is projected that 1000 students will drop out of school during the next year. Two programs have been proposed to address this problem, but only one can be implemented. Based on other states’ experiences with the programs, estimates of the outcomes that can be expected from each program can be made. Assume for purposes of this decision that these estimates of the outcomes are accurate and are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 600 of the 1000 students will drop out of school.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 40% chance that none of the 1000 students will drop out of school and 60% chance that all 1000 students will drop out of school.

Which program would you favor for implementation?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely would Definitely would

choose A choose B

Instructions:

Each of the following problems ask you to rate your judgment of a product or a situation. Each problem is presented with a scale ranging from 1 (representing the worst rating) through 6 (representing the best rating). For each problem, please circle the number on the scale that best reflects your judgment.

Problem 1

As R&D manager, one of your project teams has come to you requesting an additional $100,000 in funds for a project you instituted several months ago. The project is already behind schedule and over budget, but the team still believes it can be successfully completed. You currently have $500,000 remaining in your budget unallocated, but which must carry you for the rest of the fiscal year. Lowering the balance by an additional $100,000 might jeopardize flexibility to respond to other opportunities.

Evaluating the situation, you believe there is a fair chance the project will not succeed, in which case the additional funding would be lost; if successful, however, the money would be well spent. You also noticed that of the projects undertaken by this team, 20 of the last 50 have been unsuccessful.

What is the likelihood you would fund the request?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very unlikely Very likely

Problem 2

Imagine that a woman parked illegally. After talking to her, you believe that there is an 80% chance that she knew she parked illegally.

With this in mind, how much of a fine do you believe this woman deserves?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Minimum fine Maximum fine

Problem 3

In a recent confidential survey completed by graduating seniors, 65% of those completing the survey stated that they had cheated during their college career.

Considering the results of the survey, how would you rate the incidence of cheating at your university?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very low Very high

Problem 4

Imagine that a new technique has been developed to treat a particular kind of cancer. This technique has a 50% chance of failure, and is available at the local hospital.

A member of your immediate family is a patient at the local hospital with this kind of cancer. How likely are you to encourage him or her to undergo treatment using this technique?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely no Definitely yes

Problem 5

Imagine the following situation. You are entertaining a special friend by inviting them for dinner. You are making your favorite lasagna dish with ground beef. Your roommate goes to the grocery store and purchases a package of ground beef for you. The label says 20% fat ground beef.

What’s your evaluation of the quality of this ground beef?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very low Very high

Problem 6

Imagine that a type of condom has a 5% failure rate. That is, if you have sex with someone who has the AIDS virus, there is a 5% chance that this type of condom will fail to prevent you from being exposed to the AIDS virus.

Should the government allow this type of condom to be advertised as "an effective method for lowering the risk of AIDS?"

1 2 3 4 5 6

Definitely no Definitely yes

Problem 7

Suppose a student got 10% incorrect in the mid-term exam and 30% incorrect in the final-term exam, what would be your evaluations of this student’s performance?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Very poor Very good

Instructions:

The following problems ask out of 100 people your age, how many would say that it is sometimes OK to do different things. For each question, please circle a number between 0 (meaning no one thinks that it is sometimes OK) and 100 (meaning everyone thinks that it is sometimes OK).

1. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to steal under certain circumstances?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

2. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to smoke cigarettes?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

3. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to commit a crime which could put you in jail?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

4. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to keep things you find in the street?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

5. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to experiment with marijuana?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

6. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to use your fists to resolve a conflict?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

7. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to drink and drive?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

8. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… to yell and argue to solve a conflict?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

9. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to hold the door open for people?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

10. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to tell the police when you witness a crime?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

11. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to give directions to someone who is lost?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

12. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to be on time for appointments?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

13. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to return something you borrowed?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

14. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to keep secrets that a friend told you?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

15. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to return phone calls right away?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone

16. Out of 100 people your age, how many would say it is sometimes OK …

… not to spend time with friends in need?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

No one Everyone