## Darwin, the rule of three, and little use for higher mathematics

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The Rule of Three: A/B = C/D

We came across an interesting passage in our former professor Stephen Stigler’s “The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom.”

Charles Darwin had little use for higher mathematics. He summed up his view in 1855 in a letter to his old friend (and second cousin) William Darwin Fox with a statement that Karl Pearson made famous: “I have no faith in anything short of actual measurement and the Rule of Three.” In 1901, Pearson adopted this as the motto for the new journal Biometrika … it was as close to an endorsement of mathematics as Pearson could find in Darwin’s writing.

Darwin was surely right in valuing actual measurement, but his faith in the Rule of Three was msiplaced. The Rule of Three that Darwin cited would have been familiar to every English schoolboy who had studied Euclid’s book 5. It is simply the mathematical proposition that if a/b = c/d, then any three of a, b, c, and d suffice to determine the fourth. For Darwin, this would have served as a handy tool for extrapolation, just as it had for many other before him … In the 1600s, John Graunt and William Petty ahd used such rations to estimate population and economic activity; int he 1700s and early 1800s, so, too, did Pierre Simon Laplace and Adolphe Quetelet.

Neither Darwin nor anyone before him realized what weak analytical support the Rule of Three provides. The rule works well in prorating commercial transactions and for the mathematical problems of Euclid; it fails to work in any interesting scientific question where variation and measurement error present …

OK:
1) The rule of three. Who knew it had that name? Could be a good way to get your kids interested in it.
2) The other rule of three we know is in comedy, where it’s pretty darn important.
2) Who knew that Darwin and Pearson had little faith in fancy math? Wonder what they’d make of modern statistical methods.

## Call for nominations: 5th Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory, and Behavioral Economics

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DEADLINE TO NOMINATE MAY 1, 2017

Call for nominations: 5th Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory, and Behavioral Economics

The University of Exeter Business School will award a prize of £2,000 for the most outstanding article published in a refereed journal in 2016 from the following fields:

-Experimental Economics
-Decision Theory
-Behavioral Economics

Papers can qualify under any one of the following categories:
1. Any paper that involves either lab or field experiments.
2. Any purely theoretical paper that involves “behavioral” theory (for example, non-expected utility).
3. Any empirical work that shows evidence for behavioral models (that fit under 2) or tests/rejects models (that fit under 2).

In addition to the monetary prize, the author or representative from the authors of the winning paper will be invited to present that paper and related research at the University of Exeter in the Fall of this year.

We would like to invite you to nominate a paper. To qualify it must be published in 2016 and in one of the above-mentioned fields. The date must be the in-print date rather than the on-line date. You may send the nomination via an email to the following address: feelmail at exeter.ac.uk. Please write ‘Exeter Prize Nomination’ in the subject field. Note that you are allowed to nominate your own papers.

We will generate a shortlist of papers from the nominations. The shortlist will be evaluated by a panel, who will then decide the winner. This year our panel members are:

– Glenn Harrison (Georgia State University)
– Michael Mandler (Royal Holloway University of London)
– Michel Regenwetter (University of Illinois)

The deadline for submitting a nomination is May 1, 2017
.

The winner of the 2016 Exeter Prize was “Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds” by David Budescu and Eva Chen, published in Management Science.

The winner of the 2015 Exeter Prize was “Experimental games on networks: underpinnings of behavior and equilibrium selection” by Gary Charness, Francesco Feri, Miguel Melendez, and Matthias Sutter, published in Econometrica.

The winner of the 2014 Exeter Prize was “Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Recursive Models of Ambiguity Aversion” by Tomasz Strzalecki, published in Econometrica.

The winner of the 2013 Exeter Prize was “A Continuous Dilemma” by Daniel Friedman and Ryan Oprea, published in the American Economic Review.

The winner of the 2012 Exeter Prize was “Transitivity of Preferences” by Michel Regenwetter, Jason Dana, and Clintin P. Davis-Stober, published in Psychological Review.

For more details on the prize see:

## Process Tracing Studies Conference, Galway, Ireland, June 22-24, 2017

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What: 36th meeting of the European Group of Process Tracing Studies in Judgment and Decision Making Conference (EGPROC)
When: June 22-24, 2017
Where: University of Ireland Galway

Submissions and registrations for the meeting are open until April 18th via http://tiny.cc/egproc2017

We are delighted to host the 36th meeting of the European Group of Process Tracing Studies in Judgment and Decision Making (EGPROC) from the 22nd to the 24th of June 2017 at the National University of Ireland Galway in Ireland. This meeting is sponsored by the European Association for Decision Making (EADM).

The deadline for abstract submission is the 18th of April, 2017.

The EGPROC meeting is an annual gathering of researchers interested in process tracing research in the area of Judgment and Decision Making where participants present and discuss recent research and ideas in an open and relatively informal atmosphere. Process tracing approaches include eye tracking, mouse cursor tracking, verbal protocols, neurological correlates of decision making to name a few. Such approaches are technical, so, in addition to presenting the latest advances in the field, the meeting aims to facilitate the transfer of best practice and “lab lore” across laboratories to support the development of the next generation of process tracing researchers.

This year, we are delighted to host Professor Neil Stewart of Warwick University as our keynote speaker. In addition, we will have a panel discussion on the first day of the conference facilitated by Dr KongFatt Wong-Lin of Ulster University, a Moore Institute Visiting Fellow, discussing neural plausibility of decision-making models. These events will allow attendees to discuss decision theoretic concepts with the architects of two influential decision models.

## How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

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FIND YOUR BIRTHDAY IN PI, IN THREE DIFFERENT FORMATS

It was Pi Day (March 14, like 3/14, like 3.14, get it?) recently and Time Magazine did a fun interactive app in which you can find your birthday inside the digits of pi.

However:
1) They only used one format of birthday, in which July 4th would be 704. But there are other ways to write July 4. Like 0704 or 74. And those must be investigated, right?
2) Our friend Dave Pennock said he wanted to see the locations of every possible birthday inside pi.

So here they are. Enjoy! And R code below if you are interested. Plot and other stuff use Hadley Wickham’s Tidyverse tools.

And what the heck, have a spreadsheet of fun (i.e., spreadsheet with all the birthdays and locations in it). And here are 100,000 digits of pi, too.

Just for completeness, let’s redo that plot using 100,000 random numbers instead of the digits of pi.

Yep, pretty similar!

 Birthday location Shorter form location Shortest form loc 01-01 2563 1-01 853 1-1 95 01-02 6599 1-02 164 1-2 149 01-03 25991 1-03 3487 1-3 111 01-04 1219 1-04 270 1-4 2 01-05 3982 1-05 50 1-5 4 01-06 1011 1-06 1012 1-6 41 01-07 23236 1-07 1488 1-7 96 01-08 16216 1-08 2535 1-8 425 01-09 4555 1-09 207 1-9 38 01-10 3253 1-10 175 1-10 175 01-11 19627 1-11 154 1-11 154 01-12 4449 1-12 710 1-12 710 01-13 362 1-13 363 1-13 363 01-14 4678 1-14 2725 1-14 2725 01-15 27576 1-15 922 1-15 922 01-16 5776 1-16 396 1-16 396 01-17 6290 1-17 95 1-17 95 01-18 7721 1-18 446 1-18 446 01-19 494 1-19 495 1-19 495 01-20 43172 1-20 244 1-20 244 01-21 6305 1-21 711 1-21 711 01-22 660 1-22 484 1-22 484 01-23 27847 1-23 1925 1-23 1925 01-24 8619 1-24 1081 1-24 1081 01-25 15458 1-25 1351 1-25 1351 01-26 4372 1-26 2014 1-26 2014 01-27 9693 1-27 298 1-27 298 01-28 1199 1-28 149 1-28 149 01-29 2341 1-29 500 1-29 500 01-30 5748 1-30 745 1-30 745 01-31 5742 1-31 1097 1-31 1097 02-01 9803 2-01 245 2-1 94 02-02 7287 2-02 1514 2-2 136 02-03 3831 2-03 1051 2-3 17 02-04 28185 2-04 375 2-4 293 02-05 12631 2-05 1327 2-5 90 02-06 9809 2-06 885 2-6 7 02-07 14839 2-07 2374 2-7 29 02-08 6141 2-08 77 2-8 34 02-09 24361 2-09 54 2-9 187 02-10 9918 2-10 1318 2-10 1318 02-11 4353 2-11 94 2-11 94 02-12 30474 2-12 712 2-12 712 02-13 524 2-13 281 2-13 281 02-14 10340 2-14 103 2-14 103 02-15 24666 2-15 3099 2-15 3099 02-16 4384 2-16 992 2-16 992 02-17 546 2-17 547 2-17 547 02-18 2866 2-18 424 2-18 424 02-19 716 2-19 717 2-19 717 02-20 15715 2-20 1911 2-20 1911 02-21 17954 2-21 1737 2-21 1737 02-22 1889 2-22 1736 2-22 1736 02-23 25113 2-23 136 2-23 136 02-24 12782 2-24 536 2-24 536 02-25 3019 2-25 1071 2-25 1071 02-26 6742 2-26 965 2-26 965 02-27 18581 2-27 485 2-27 485 02-28 4768 2-28 2528 2-28 2528 02-29 6707 2-29 186 2-29 186 03-01 1045 3-01 493 3-1 1 03-02 1439 3-02 818 3-2 16 03-03 15339 3-03 195 3-3 25 03-04 4460 3-04 4461 3-4 87 03-05 29985 3-05 366 3-5 10 03-06 3102 3-06 116 3-6 286 03-07 3813 3-07 65 3-7 47 03-08 35207 3-08 520 3-8 18 03-09 5584 3-09 421 3-9 44 03-10 7692 3-10 442 3-10 442 03-11 11254 3-11 846 3-11 846 03-12 11647 3-12 2632 3-12 2632 03-13 858 3-13 859 3-13 859 03-14 3496 3-14 1 3-14 1 03-15 8285 3-15 314 3-15 314 03-16 13008 3-16 238 3-16 238 03-17 4778 3-17 138 3-17 138 03-18 7291 3-18 797 3-18 797 03-19 4530 3-19 1166 3-19 1166 03-20 3767 3-20 600 3-20 600 03-21 18810 3-21 960 3-21 960 03-22 12744 3-22 3434 3-22 3434 03-23 8948 3-23 16 3-23 16 03-24 16475 3-24 2495 3-24 2495 03-25 12524 3-25 3147 3-25 3147 03-26 7634 3-26 275 3-26 275 03-27 9208 3-27 28 3-27 28 03-28 24341 3-28 112 3-28 112 03-29 16096 3-29 3333 3-29 3333 03-30 2568 3-30 365 3-30 365 03-31 13852 3-31 1128 3-31 1128 04-01 19625 4-01 1198 4-1 3 04-02 17679 4-02 1368 4-2 93 04-03 4776 4-03 724 4-3 24 04-04 1272 4-04 1273 4-4 60 04-05 10748 4-05 596 4-5 61 04-06 39577 4-06 71 4-6 20 04-07 4258 4-07 2008 4-7 120 04-08 5602 4-08 146 4-8 88 04-09 33757 4-09 340 4-9 58 04-10 11495 4-10 163 4-10 163 04-11 9655 4-11 2497 4-11 2497 04-12 20103 4-12 297 4-12 297 04-13 6460 4-13 1076 4-13 1076 04-14 3756 4-14 385 4-14 385 04-15 7735 4-15 3 4-15 3 04-16 10206 4-16 1709 4-16 1709 04-17 15509 4-17 1419 4-17 1419 04-18 7847 4-18 728 4-18 728 04-19 4790 4-19 37 4-19 37 04-20 3286 4-20 702 4-20 702 04-21 16028 4-21 93 4-21 93 04-22 4796 4-22 1840 4-22 1840 04-23 8220 4-23 2995 4-23 2995 04-24 1878 4-24 1110 4-24 1110 04-25 5716 4-25 822 4-25 822 04-26 1392 4-26 1393 4-26 1393 04-27 36946 4-27 630 4-27 630 04-28 910 4-28 203 4-28 203 04-29 4514 4-29 1230 4-29 1230 04-30 4619 4-30 519 4-30 519 05-01 21816 5-01 1344 5-1 49 05-02 25156 5-02 32 5-2 173 05-03 19743 5-03 838 5-3 9 05-04 9475 5-04 1921 5-4 192 05-05 36575 5-05 132 5-5 131 05-06 2094 5-06 1116 5-6 211 05-07 683 5-07 684 5-7 405 05-08 14658 5-08 1122 5-8 11 05-09 17171 5-09 1147 5-9 5 05-10 10274 5-10 49 5-10 49 05-11 444 5-11 395 5-11 395 05-12 2294 5-12 1843 5-12 1843 05-13 597 5-13 110 5-13 110 05-14 42236 5-14 2118 5-14 2118 05-15 10458 5-15 1100 5-15 1100 05-16 5367 5-16 3516 5-16 3516 05-17 24365 5-17 2109 5-17 2109 05-18 751 5-18 471 5-18 471 05-19 17096 5-19 390 5-19 390 05-20 20247 5-20 326 5-20 326 05-21 19553 5-21 173 5-21 173 05-22 2041 5-22 535 5-22 535 05-23 4317 5-23 579 5-23 579 05-24 15635 5-24 1615 5-24 1615 05-25 3233 5-25 1006 5-25 1006 05-26 3984 5-26 613 5-26 613 05-27 7300 5-27 241 5-27 241 05-28 18917 5-28 867 5-28 867 05-29 6373 5-29 1059 5-29 1059 05-30 367 5-30 368 5-30 368 05-31 26607 5-31 2871 5-31 2871 06-01 2400 6-01 1218 6-1 220 06-02 14854 6-02 291 6-2 21 06-03 9019 6-03 264 6-3 313 06-04 1172 6-04 1173 6-4 23 06-05 5681 6-05 750 6-5 8 06-06 13163 6-06 311 6-6 118 06-07 10861 6-07 287 6-7 99 06-08 13912 6-08 618 6-8 606 06-09 3376 6-09 128 6-9 42 06-10 13704 6-10 269 6-10 269 06-11 7448 6-11 427 6-11 427 06-12 11585 6-12 220 6-12 220 06-13 7490 6-13 971 6-13 971 06-14 2887 6-14 1612 6-14 1612 06-15 25066 6-15 1030 6-15 1030 06-16 6017 6-16 1206 6-16 1206 06-17 886 6-17 887 6-17 887 06-18 14424 6-18 1444 6-18 1444 06-19 6351 6-19 843 6-19 843 06-20 14967 6-20 76 6-20 76 06-21 2819 6-21 2820 6-21 2820 06-22 30206 6-22 185 6-22 185 06-23 51529 6-23 456 6-23 456 06-24 5491 6-24 510 6-24 510 06-25 5971 6-25 1569 6-25 1569 06-26 16707 6-26 21 6-26 21 06-27 5424 6-27 462 6-27 462 06-28 72 6-28 73 6-28 73 06-29 11928 6-29 571 6-29 571 06-30 10902 6-30 1900 6-30 1900 07-01 10640 7-01 167 7-1 40 07-02 544 7-02 545 7-2 140 07-03 10108 7-03 408 7-3 300 07-04 9882 7-04 2670 7-4 57 07-05 9233 7-05 561 7-5 48 07-06 5134 7-06 97 7-6 570 07-07 3815 7-07 755 7-7 560 07-08 8111 7-08 3061 7-8 67 07-09 3641 7-09 121 7-9 14 07-10 3169 7-10 681 7-10 681 07-11 4250 7-11 1185 7-11 1185 07-12 7695 7-12 243 7-12 243 07-13 36438 7-13 627 7-13 627 07-14 9546 7-14 610 7-14 610 07-15 5668 7-15 344 7-15 344 07-16 10242 7-16 40 7-16 40 07-17 15743 7-17 568 7-17 568 07-18 2988 7-18 2776 7-18 2776 07-19 8664 7-19 541 7-19 541 07-20 44221 7-20 1009 7-20 1009 07-21 756 7-21 650 7-21 650 07-22 2375 7-22 2140 7-22 2140 07-23 3300 7-23 1632 7-23 1632 07-24 8811 7-24 302 7-24 302 07-25 16244 7-25 140 7-25 140 07-26 288 7-26 289 7-26 289 07-27 12328 7-27 406 7-27 406 07-28 4879 7-28 1584 7-28 1584 07-29 4078 7-29 771 7-29 771 07-30 6892 7-30 898 7-30 898 07-31 2808 7-31 785 7-31 785 08-01 9508 8-01 3418 8-1 68 08-02 18639 8-02 1993 8-2 53 08-03 8283 8-03 85 8-3 27 08-04 1284 8-04 775 8-4 19 08-05 2292 8-05 957 8-5 172 08-06 9289 8-06 968 8-6 75 08-07 15787 8-07 451 8-7 306 08-08 4545 8-08 106 8-8 35 08-09 3009 8-09 1003 8-9 12 08-10 3207 8-10 206 8-10 206 08-11 10884 8-11 153 8-11 153 08-12 147 8-12 148 8-12 148 08-13 10981 8-13 734 8-13 734 08-14 4274 8-14 882 8-14 882 08-15 25257 8-15 324 8-15 324 08-16 1601 8-16 68 8-16 68 08-17 4857 8-17 319 8-17 319 08-18 30399 8-18 490 8-18 490 08-19 12786 8-19 198 8-19 198 08-20 4787 8-20 53 8-20 53 08-21 12923 8-21 102 8-21 102 08-22 5149 8-22 135 8-22 135 08-23 11957 8-23 114 8-23 114 08-24 10358 8-24 1196 8-24 1196 08-25 828 8-25 89 8-25 89 08-26 4294 8-26 2059 8-26 2059 08-27 619 8-27 620 8-27 620 08-28 24614 8-28 2381 8-28 2381 08-29 1123 8-29 335 8-29 335 08-30 816 8-30 492 8-30 492 08-31 25355 8-31 237 8-31 237 09-01 658 9-01 659 9-1 250 09-02 2074 9-02 715 9-2 6 09-03 6335 9-03 357 9-3 15 09-04 8107 9-04 909 9-4 59 09-05 23683 9-05 3191 9-5 31 09-06 8297 9-06 1294 9-6 181 09-07 2986 9-07 543 9-7 13 09-08 7828 9-08 815 9-8 81 09-09 12077 9-09 248 9-9 45 09-10 17009 9-10 2874 9-10 2874 09-11 6125 9-11 1534 9-11 1534 09-12 29379 9-12 483 9-12 483 09-13 17515 9-13 1096 9-13 1096 09-14 249 9-14 250 9-14 250 09-15 3413 9-15 1315 9-15 1315 09-16 5930 9-16 3370 9-16 3370 09-17 341 9-17 342 9-17 342 09-18 4731 9-18 2220 9-18 2220 09-19 2127 9-19 417 9-19 417 09-20 328 9-20 329 9-20 329 09-21 422 9-21 423 9-21 423 09-22 7963 9-22 687 9-22 687 09-23 23216 9-23 63 9-23 63 09-24 5122 9-24 1430 9-24 1430 09-25 4008 9-25 337 9-25 337 09-26 5380 9-26 6 9-26 6 09-27 1177 9-27 977 9-27 977 09-28 5768 9-28 2192 9-28 2192 09-29 7785 9-29 1854 9-29 1854 09-30 1494 9-30 194 9-30 194 10-01 15762 10-01 15762 10-1 853 10-02 6740 10-02 6740 10-2 164 10-03 12292 10-03 12292 10-3 3487 10-04 3849 10-04 3849 10-4 270 10-05 2881 10-05 2881 10-5 50 10-06 3481 10-06 3481 10-6 1012 10-07 4076 10-07 4076 10-7 1488 10-08 8281 10-08 8281 10-8 2535 10-09 1817 10-09 1817 10-9 207 10-10 853 10-10 853 10-10 853 10-11 3846 10-11 3846 10-11 3846 10-12 8618 10-12 8618 10-12 8618 10-13 8271 10-13 8271 10-13 8271 10-14 2781 10-14 2781 10-14 2781 10-15 2564 10-15 2564 10-15 2564 10-16 9987 10-16 9987 10-16 9987 10-17 8041 10-17 8041 10-17 8041 10-18 1224 10-18 1224 10-18 1224 10-19 15483 10-19 15483 10-19 15483 10-20 9808 10-20 9808 10-20 9808 10-21 2750 10-21 2750 10-21 2750 10-22 6400 10-22 6400 10-22 6400 10-23 6771 10-23 6771 10-23 6771 10-24 12736 10-24 12736 10-24 12736 10-25 12926 10-25 12926 10-25 12926 10-26 14679 10-26 14679 10-26 14679 10-27 164 10-27 164 10-27 164 10-28 3242 10-28 3242 10-28 3242 10-29 8197 10-29 8197 10-29 8197 10-30 20819 10-30 20819 10-30 20819 10-31 3495 10-31 3495 10-31 3495 11-01 2780 11-01 2780 11-1 154 11-02 12721 11-02 12721 11-2 710 11-03 3494 11-03 3494 11-3 363 11-04 23842 11-04 23842 11-4 2725 11-05 175 11-05 175 11-5 922 11-06 13461 11-06 13461 11-6 396 11-07 21819 11-07 21819 11-7 95 11-08 7450 11-08 7450 11-8 446 11-09 3254 11-09 3254 11-9 495 11-10 22898 11-10 22898 11-10 22898 11-11 12701 11-11 12701 11-11 12701 11-12 12702 11-12 12702 11-12 12702 11-13 3504 11-13 3504 11-13 3504 11-14 23209 11-14 23209 11-14 23209 11-15 27054 11-15 27054 11-15 27054 11-16 3993 11-16 3993 11-16 3993 11-17 154 11-17 154 11-17 154 11-18 14376 11-18 14376 11-18 14376 11-19 984 11-19 984 11-19 984 11-20 3823 11-20 3823 11-20 3823 11-21 710 11-21 710 11-21 710 11-22 12018 11-22 12018 11-22 12018 11-23 6548 11-23 6548 11-23 6548 11-24 25705 11-24 25705 11-24 25705 11-25 1350 11-25 1350 11-25 1350 11-26 12703 11-26 12703 11-26 12703 11-27 4252 11-27 4252 11-27 4252 11-28 14719 11-28 14719 11-28 14719 11-29 4450 11-29 4450 11-29 4450 11-30 9107 11-30 9107 11-30 9107 12-01 244 12-01 244 12-1 711 12-02 19942 12-02 19942 12-2 484 12-03 60873 12-03 60873 12-3 1925 12-04 11885 12-04 11885 12-4 1081 12-05 3329 12-05 3329 12-5 1351 12-06 3259 12-06 3259 12-6 2014 12-07 7511 12-07 7511 12-7 298 12-08 3714 12-08 3714 12-8 149 12-09 4729 12-09 4729 12-9 500 12-10 3456 12-10 3456 12-10 3456 12-11 50289 12-11 50289 12-11 50289 12-12 711 12-12 711 12-12 711 12-13 47502 12-13 47502 12-13 47502 12-14 4560 12-14 4560 12-14 4560 12-15 11942 12-15 11942 12-15 11942 12-16 6986 12-16 6986 12-16 6986 12-17 11078 12-17 11078 12-17 11078 12-18 9167 12-18 9167 12-18 9167 12-19 1426 12-19 1426 12-19 1426 12-20 36498 12-20 36498 12-20 36498 12-21 8732 12-21 8732 12-21 8732 12-22 17882 12-22 17882 12-22 17882 12-23 9550 12-23 9550 12-23 9550 12-24 661 12-24 661 12-24 661 12-25 9417 12-25 9417 12-25 9417 12-26 964 12-26 964 12-26 964 12-27 484 12-27 484 12-27 484 12-28 5183 12-28 5183 12-28 5183 12-29 30418 12-29 30418 12-29 30418 12-30 7146 12-30 7146 12-30 7146 12-31 9451 12-31 9451 12-31 9451

R CODE
``` library(ggplot2) library(readr) library(stringr) library(tidyr) pistring = read_file("pi.txt") #choose 2016 b/c it's a leap year dayvec = seq(as.Date('2016-01-01'), as.Date('2016-12-31'), by = 1) dayvec = str_sub(dayvec, start = 6, end = 10) shorterdayvec = sub("0(.-.)", "\\1", dayvec) shortestdayvec = sub("(.-)0(.)\$", "\\1\\2", shorterdayvec) df = data.frame( birthday = dayvec, loc = str_locate(pistring, gsub("-", "", dayvec))[, 1], shorter_bday = shorterdayvec, shorter_loc = str_locate(pistring, gsub("-", "", shorterdayvec))[, 1], shortest_bday = shortestdayvec, shortest_loc = str_locate(pistring, gsub("-", "", shortestdayvec))[, 1] ) write.csv(df, file = "birthdays_in_pi.csv", row.names = FALSE) long_df = df %>% gather(key, location, loc, shorter_loc, shortest_loc) p = ggplot(long_df, aes(x = location, fill = key)) p = p + geom_density(alpha = .3) p = p + coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 40000)) p = p + theme(legend.position = "bottom") p ggsave( plot = p, file = "birthdays_in_pi.pdf", height = 4, width = 4 ) #now repeat with random numbers randstring = paste(replicate(100000, { floor(10 * runif(1)) }), collapse = "") #check our work table(str_split(randstring,"")) df_rand = data.frame( birthday = dayvec, loc = str_locate(randstring, gsub("-", "", dayvec))[, 1], shorter_bday = shorterdayvec, shorter_loc = str_locate(randstring, gsub("-", "", shorterdayvec))[, 1], shortest_bday = shortestdayvec, shortest_loc = str_locate(randstring, gsub("-", "", shortestdayvec))[, 1] ) long_df_rand = df_rand %>% gather(key, location, loc, shorter_loc, shortest_loc) p = ggplot(long_df_rand, aes(x = location, fill = key)) p = p + geom_density(alpha = .3) p = p + coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 40000)) p = p + theme(legend.position = "bottom") p ggsave( plot = p, file = "birthdays_in_random.png", height = 4, width = 4 )```

``` ```

## Learn some statistics this summer

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SUMMER STATISTICS AND METHODS COURSES 2017

….

An important part of our stats education was Stephen Stigler’s lesson on the Quincunx

Alan Reifman maintains a list of summer statistics and methods courses that would be of interest to those looking to refresh or expand upon their skills.

Here is the list for 2017. Enjoy!

best,
Dan

Image credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine

## Two jobs at Columbia University

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IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK

Decision Science News started at Columbia University. In fact, it was a postdoc at the Center for the Decision Sciences (position 2) below. Maybe you can get one of these jobs and become a decision science blog too?

POSTING 1:

Rank Tenured Associate or Full Professor Position at Columbia University, Department of Psychology

Columbia University Department of Psychology invites applications for a position at the rank tenured associate or full professor to begin July 1, 2018. While applicants in other areas of research will be considered, we are especially interested in individuals with expertise in cognitive science whose research focuses on the psychological and brain bases of decision-making.

Responsibilities include undergraduate and graduate teaching and the development of a vigorous research program. Moreover, we seek applicants who are interested in taking a leadership role in the department and in this program area as we maintain the excellence of a strong decision-making program through the department and University.

Review of applications will begin on March 15, 2017 and will continue until the position is filled.

Columbia University is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer. The University is especially interested in qualified candidates whose record of achievement will contribute to the diversity goals of the institution.

POSTING 2:

Post-Doctoral Researcher, Center for Decision Sciences, Columbia University

The Center for Decision Sciences (CDS), is seeking an outstanding researcher for a Post-Doctoral Researcher position starting in the Fall of 2017, or later. CDS is an interdisciplinary center that facilitates research and understanding on consumer behavior, the implications of decision making on public policy, and the neurological underpinnings of judgment and decision making. This appointment will be in Columbia’s Graduate School of Business.

The post-doctoral researcher will report to the center’s Director Eric J. Johnson, and will collaborate with other center researchers, post-docs, and graduate students across disciplines. The post-doc will assist in planning and carrying out web-based surveys, lab research, and field studies, and analyzing general patterns of responses as well as individual and cultural differences. S/He we will be expected to employ a combination of approaches, from the identification and analysis of existing real-world data sets arising as the result of natural experiments, to the design and analysis of field or lab intervention studies that collect process and outcome measures related to decision making in various domains. We are particularly interested in candidates with computational modeling and strong statistical skills.

Other duties include contribution to other ongoing center projects, preparation of and participation in CDS workshops, and drafting reports and papers for publication.

*Required qualifications*:
* Ph.D. in psychology (cognitive, social, or other relevant subdisciplines), consumer behavior, behavioral economics, decision sciences, or another relevant discipline.
* Familiarity with normative and descriptive theories of decision making.
* Skilled in the use of laboratory-based experiments.
* Data analysis and modeling skills using statistical software packages
(preferably R) and econometrics.
* Proficiency in web-based computer programming (online experimentation
and surveys).

*Desired qualifications*:
* Publications
* Experience working as a member of interdisciplinary teams.
* Some familiarity with econometrics and modeling.
* Proficiency in use of process tracing software (e.g., MouseLab/Web and/or eye-movement packages).

*Duration*: This is a one-year position with the possibility of renewal for a second year conditional on performance.

Please submit applications electronically to Brian Huh at brian@decisionsciences.columbia.edu

*Application Materials*:
– Cover letter
– CV
– 2 publications or writing samples
– 2 recommendation letters (to be submitted directly by references)

Columbia University is an equal opportunity/affirmative action — Disability/Veterans employer.

## Advances in Decision Analysis 2017 Conference Austin, TX, June 26-27, 2017

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We are pleased to announce Advances in Decision Analysis 2017, a conference organized by the Decision Analysis Society. This conference-the second of its kind-will be held June 26-27, 2017 at The University of Texas at Austin in Austin, Texas.

The conference aims to develop and promote work fit for the Decision Analysis areas in Management Science and Operations Research and the Decision Analysis journal. The conference will provide a platform for interdisciplinary discussions and will include talks by researchers in statistics, economics, psychology, and other decision-making related disciplines with a prescriptive focus.

We are also pleased to announce that Professor Jim Dyer of the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin will offer the opening plenary. A second plenary talk will be given by Bill Klimack of Chevron.

Details on abstract submission and registration are available on the conference site. (See the links on the lower left of the page.)

We hope you will join us at the Advances in Decision Analysis 2017 Conference to enjoy the research talks and take in the sights of Austin TX!

General Chair: Casey Lichtendahl (University of Virginia).
Local Chair: John Butler (UT-Austin).
Steering Committee: Bob Winkler (Duke University), Detlof Von Winterfeldt (University of Southern California), Manel Baucells (University of Virginia), and Ali Abbas (University of Southern California).
Organizing Committee: General and Local Chairs, Eric Bickel (UT-Austin), Jason Merrick (VCU), Joe Hahn (UT-Austin), and Yael Grushka-Cockayne (University of Virginia).

Submitting Conference Abstracts
We are now accepting abstracts focusing on statistics, economics, psychology, and other decision-making related disciplines with a prescriptive focus. Submissions will undergo a peer-review process. Those not selected for presentation may be invited to present a poster.

* Submission deadline: Monday, March 3, 2017
* Notification of acceptance: March 26, 2017
* Please submit in PDF format both a short abstract (not to exceed 200 characters) and a one-page extended abstract (about 500 words). If you choose, you can upload a full paper in PDF format, instead of the one-page abstract, but this is not required.
* You are permitted only one abstract as a presenting author (speaker)
* You can be a co-author on other abstracts.
* As the presenting author, you are expected to present the work at the conference.

Note: all attendees must register and pay the registration fee. Early registration deadline is 6/2/2017.

Venue and Hotels

The conference will be held in the UT Alumni Center at 2110 San Jacinto Blvd, Austin, TX 78712. See https://www.etterharbinalumnicenter.com/. The two closest hotels are

AT&T Executive Education and Conference Center (0.5 miles)
1900 University Ave, Austin, TX 78705

Hampton Inn & Suites (0.7 miles)
1701 Lavaca St, Austin, TX 78701

## 2017 Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality, Berlin, June 6-14, 2017

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We are delighted to announce that the 2017 Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality will take place on June 06–14th, 2017, at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany.

The Summer Institute brings together talented young researchers and renowned scientists from around the globe and aims to spark a dialogue on human decision making.

It offers a forum for young scholars from various disciplines to share their approaches, discuss their research, and be inspired.
The program will cover the fundamentals, methodology, and recent findings on bounded rationality. This year’s Summer Institute focuses on how and why simple models of bounded rationality make accurate predictions in an uncertain world.

On behalf of the directors of the Summer Institute, Gerd Gigerenzer and Ralph Hertwig, we invite young decision-making scholars from all fields to apply. Participation will be free, accommodation will be provided, and travel expenses will be partly reimbursed.

Applications are open until March 12, 2017.

Apply here: bit.ly/SI2017_apply

Please feel free to email any questions you might have to si2017 at mpib-berlin.mpg.de

To pass on this call for applications, you can find a pdf-version here: bit.ly/SI2017_cfa

## NIPS 2017 Call for Competitions. Deadline March 15, 2017

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COMPETITION PROPOSALS: 2017 NEURAL INFORMATION PROCESSING SYSTEMS 2017 CONFERENCE

We invite competition proposals for the 2017 Neural Information Processing Systems 2017 conference in Long Beach, CA. NIPS has had traditionally a demonstration track with competition for best demo (also available for NIPS 2017). The call for competitions corresponds to a completely new NIPS track/special session.

We solicit competition proposals on any topic of interests to the NIPS community. We especially encourage competition proposals that are stemmed from emerging new fields or new application domains related to NIPS. Interdisciplinary topics that could attract a significant cross- section of the community are highly valued.

There will be two kinds of competitions:

Standard data science driven competitions, where participants will compete to obtain the best score on a machine learning problem of interest to the NIPS community based on a problem and data defined and released by the organizers of the competition.
Live competitions, which will be held in a science-fair manner at NIPS: Participants will present demos at NIPS which apply NIPS methodology in a particular application domain defined by the organizers of the Live competition.

There will be time slots during NIPS or the workshops where competition results can be discussed and presented. Organizers will propose a tentative schedule for the presentation of the competition and its results based on the assigned time slot. The main conference will provide coffee breaks and, if necessary, poster facilities. For any additional questions please contact the competition chairs.

Both competition organizers and participants will be invited to contribute with a book chapter for inclusion in the upcoming NIPS 2017 Competition book, within the Springer Series on Challenges in Machine Learning (pending acceptance, we have contacted Springer to arrange for proceedings).

DATA SCIENCE COMPETITION PROPOSAL SUBMISSION

Regular data science driven competition proposals must be sent to the competition chairs, with email subject “NIPS17 Competition Proposal: [title of your competition]”. Please carefully follow the available “CompNIPS2017” template to apply for the competition.
Live COMPETITION PROPOSAL SUBMISSION

Live competition proposals must be sent to the competition chairs, with email subject “NIPS17 Live Competition Proposal: [title of your competition]”. Please follow the available “LiveNIPS2017” template to apply for the Live competition. A very important requirement for the Live competition acceptance is the plan for recruiting participants.
Schedule

15th March, 2017

1st April, 2017

Book chapter submission from organizers and participants to the Springer Series on Challenges in Machine Learning: NIPS 2017 Competitions volume
15th January, 2018

15th March, 2018

15th April, 2018

Tentative publication of the book
1st July, 2018

In case your proposal contains a “regular data science” track and a “Live” track, please submit both available templates for revision. It may happen that only one of them is accepted.

Competition organizers should propose a timeline for running the competition to ensure participants to have enough time to contribute with a high quality solution. It is recommended the whole competition to be finished as late by the end of October, 2017.

Proposers with a competition proposal that may require help/suggestions regarding the competition platform to run the competition can contact the competition chairs for advice.

COMPETITION CHAIRS

Dr. Sergio Escalera, sergio.escalera.guerrero@gmail.com
Dr. Markus Weimer, markus@weimo.de

## ACR 2017 San Diego, Oct 26-29, 2017. Deadline March 10

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CALL FOR PAPERS: ASSOCIATION FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH (ACR) 2017 CONFERENCE

What: Association for Consumer Research North American Conference
When: October 26 – 29, 2017
Where: San Diego, California
Hotel: Manchester Grand Hyatt, 1 Market Pl, San Diego, CA 92101