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Archive for 'R'

How long do you need to flip a coin to see a streak?

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STREAK RESULTS FOR LIKELY (>50%) and HIGHLY LIKELY (>99%) Click to enlarge From research on the hot hand to the observation that people don’t create enough streaks when instructed to create pseudo random data, the decision science community is pretty interested in the perception of streaks. One day we got to wonder, how long would […]

How much will that Texas rain be

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PUTTING 35 INCHES OF RAIN IN PERSPECTIVE We are always interested in putting numbers into perspective, so we were interested in this article in which they put the Hurricane Harvey’s rain into perspective. They’re predicting 30-40 inches of rain in a few days in Texas. They asked an expert to put that into perspective and […]

Five kinds of weather you’ll meet in America

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K-MEANS CLUSTERING, A WORKHORSE OF DATA SCIENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING CLICK TO ENLARGE The USA is a large country. How different are people’s experiences of the weather depending on where they live? To look into this question, we downloaded high temperature data for over 1,300 airport weather stations in the contiguous USA for every day […]

Weighted population density

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DENSITY THE AVERAGE PERSON EXPERIENCES CLICK TO ENLARGE In Alaska, there’s about one person for each square mile of land. You might picture a typical Alaskan not being able to see the next house. But it’s not that way of course. Most of Alaska is uninhabited. People have crowded into a few areas. The average […]

Counterintuitive problem: Everyone in a room keeps giving dollars to random others. You’ll never guess what happens next.

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This was unexpected.

Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

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TWO SHOT RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH 2 BULLETS OR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 1 or 3 BULLETS With p as the probability of dying on one shot, this figure shows how to get the probability of living through the game. Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar Imagine […]

Another rule of three, this one in statistics

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Here’s another rule of three, this one in statistics.

How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

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FIND YOUR BIRTHDAY IN PI, IN THREE DIFFERENT FORMATS It was Pi Day (March 14, like 3/14, like 3.14, get it?) recently and Time Magazine did a fun interactive app in which you can find your birthday inside the digits of pi. However: 1) They only used one format of birthday, in which July 4th […]

Turn your tough decisions into simple rules

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If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.

Heuristica: An R package for testing models of binary choice

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It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.