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Archive for 'Ideas'

Tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, information communication

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A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.

4:1 longshot Trump wins election

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JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]

On-off switch: How to remember what the line and circle mean. Think binary.

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On-off switch symbols driving you mad?

Build your own distribution builders

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A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.

Power pose co-author: I do not believe that “power pose” effects are real.

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In light of considerable evidence that there is no meaningful effect of power posing, Dana Carney a co-author of the original article has come forth stating that she no longer believes in the effect.

Turn your tough decisions into simple rules

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If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.

Heuristica: An R package for testing models of binary choice

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It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.

We’ve bet that Hillary Clinton will win

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We’ve legally bet 1,600 bucks that Clinton will win. Here’s how.

Behavioral Science and Policy Association PolicyShop Blog

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Decision Science News readers may be interested in the Behavioral Science and Policy Association’s PolicyShop blog.

How many calories should you eat per day?

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How many calories should you eat per day, based on your age, sex, and activity level? Here are the US government’s recommendations.