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Archive for 'Ideas'

Another rule of three, this one in statistics

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Here’s another rule of three, this one in statistics.

Darwin, the rule of three, and little use for higher mathematics

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Who knew that Darwin and Pearson had little faith in fancy math?

How many digits into pi do you need to go to find your birthday?

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FIND YOUR BIRTHDAY IN PI, IN THREE DIFFERENT FORMATS It was Pi Day (March 14, like 3/14, like 3.14, get it?) recently and Time Magazine did a fun interactive app in which you can find your birthday inside the digits of pi. However: 1) They only used one format of birthday, in which July 4th […]

The SJDM Newsletter is ready for download

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SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER   The quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter can be downloaded from the SJDM site: http://sjdm.org/newsletters/ Dan Goldstein SJDM Newsletter Editor

The typical American lives only 18 miles from mom, but …

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LET’S PUT THAT INTO PERSPECTIVE The NYT had a nice infographic entitled “The typical American lives only 18 miles from mom“. They’re saying the median distance to mom is 18 miles. But when you look at the data in greater depth (thanks to the graph in the article, which we reproduce above), it looks like […]

Tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, information communication

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A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.

4:1 longshot Trump wins election

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JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]

On-off switch: How to remember what the line and circle mean. Think binary.

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On-off switch symbols driving you mad?

Build your own distribution builders

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A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.

Power pose co-author: I do not believe that “power pose” effects are real.

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In light of considerable evidence that there is no meaningful effect of power posing, Dana Carney a co-author of the original article has come forth stating that she no longer believes in the effect.