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Archive for 'Encyclopedia'

How much will that Texas rain be

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PUTTING 35 INCHES OF RAIN IN PERSPECTIVE We are always interested in putting numbers into perspective, so we were interested in this article in which they put the Hurricane Harvey’s rain into perspective. They’re predicting 30-40 inches of rain in a few days in Texas. They asked an expert to put that into perspective and […]

Five kinds of weather you’ll meet in America

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K-MEANS CLUSTERING, A WORKHORSE OF DATA SCIENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING CLICK TO ENLARGE The USA is a large country. How different are people’s experiences of the weather depending on where they live? To look into this question, we downloaded high temperature data for over 1,300 airport weather stations in the contiguous USA for every day […]

Weighted population density

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DENSITY THE AVERAGE PERSON EXPERIENCES CLICK TO ENLARGE In Alaska, there’s about one person for each square mile of land. You might picture a typical Alaskan not being able to see the next house. But it’s not that way of course. Most of Alaska is uninhabited. People have crowded into a few areas. The average […]

Counterintuitive problem: Everyone in a room keeps giving dollars to random others. You’ll never guess what happens next.

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This was unexpected.

Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

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TWO SHOT RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH 2 BULLETS OR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 1 or 3 BULLETS With p as the probability of dying on one shot, this figure shows how to get the probability of living through the game. Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar Imagine […]

New York City streets are not as regular as you might think

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THINGS THAT ARE NOT CONTAINED IN OUR MENTAL MODELS The inaccurately named blog Stuff Nobody Cares About did a post on something we do care about. They got an old data table that shows that the distances between streets, the distances between avenues, and the width of street and avenues in New York City varies […]

Another rule of three, this one in statistics

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Here’s another rule of three, this one in statistics.

Darwin, the rule of three, and little use for higher mathematics

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Who knew that Darwin and Pearson had little faith in fancy math?

Tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, information communication

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A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.

4:1 longshot Trump wins election

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JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]