A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]
On-off switch symbols driving you mad?
A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.
If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.
It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.
Two recent events in the UK made it look like prediction markets’ predictions aren’t worth much. But looks can be deceiving.
We were surprised to see that R has passed SAS for scholarly use. We were surprised because we assumed this would have happened years ago.
Suppose you divide the range by four instead of taking the standard deviation. How accurate will you be?
The 25 US counties with the highest percentage of bachelors and graduate degrees.