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Archive for 'Encyclopedia'

Counterintuitive problem: Everyone in a room keeps giving dollars to random others. You’ll never guess what happens next.

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This was unexpected.

Counterintuitive probability problem of the day

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TWO SHOT RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH 2 BULLETS OR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 1 or 3 BULLETS With p as the probability of dying on one shot, this figure shows how to get the probability of living through the game. Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar Imagine […]

New York City streets are not as regular as you might think

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THINGS THAT ARE NOT CONTAINED IN OUR MENTAL MODELS The inaccurately named blog Stuff Nobody Cares About did a post on something we do care about. They got an old data table that shows that the distances between streets, the distances between avenues, and the width of street and avenues in New York City varies […]

Another rule of three, this one in statistics

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Here’s another rule of three, this one in statistics.

Darwin, the rule of three, and little use for higher mathematics

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Who knew that Darwin and Pearson had little faith in fancy math?

Tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, information communication

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A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.

4:1 longshot Trump wins election

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JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]

On-off switch: How to remember what the line and circle mean. Think binary.

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On-off switch symbols driving you mad?

Build your own distribution builders

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A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.

Turn your tough decisions into simple rules

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If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.