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Archive for 'Encyclopedia'

Tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, information communication

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A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.

4:1 longshot Trump wins election

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JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]

On-off switch: How to remember what the line and circle mean. Think binary.

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On-off switch symbols driving you mad?

Build your own distribution builders

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A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.

Turn your tough decisions into simple rules

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If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.

Heuristica: An R package for testing models of binary choice

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It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.

Prediction markets have to occasionally “get it wrong” to be calibrated

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Two recent events in the UK made it look like prediction markets’ predictions aren’t worth much. But looks can be deceiving.

R is now the number two statistical computing program in scholarly use

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We were surprised to see that R has passed SAS for scholarly use. We were surprised because we assumed this would have happened years ago.

Can’t compute the standard deviation in your head? Divide the range by four.

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Suppose you divide the range by four instead of taking the standard deviation. How accurate will you be?

What are the most educated counties in the US?

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The 25 US counties with the highest percentage of bachelors and graduate degrees.