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A simple heuristic to forecast elections

Filed in Research News
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PREDICTING ELECTIONS FROM THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY

Ele5

Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong have put forth a model that predicts the outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections based on the most important issue as seen by voters. It’s a good illustration of how one cue, if it’s a good one, can be effective for forecasting.

It’s an early draft and they would appreciate comments.

The paper is available here: http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/images/papers/PollyMIP.pdf

Photo credit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Election_MG_3455.jpg

4 Comments

  1. Miguel says:

    Great find. I’m linking to this post asap via my blog SimoleonSense. Thanks for keeping together such a great resource.

    -Miguel Barbosa

    December 3, 2009 @ 2:03 am

  2. Farnam Street says:

    Nice find!

    December 7, 2009 @ 5:04 am

  3. dan says:

    Andrew Gelman has commented on this manuscript (which should make the authors happy, since they told me their they’re seeking feedback). Read on: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/12/predicting_elec_1.html

    December 19, 2009 @ 7:47 pm

  4. hatmandu.net – Simple methods get my vote says:

    […] Predicting elections from the most important issue facing the country (PDF – I found it via Decision Science News, the work of GG’s collaborator Dan Goldstein), though the bare bones as […]

    December 22, 2009 @ 10:24 am

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