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Probability of each chess piece being moved on move X

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We were wasting time on the internet one day an saw a post entitled Probability of a chess piece being moved on move X in a Vassily Ivanchuk game. It featured this graphic.

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We then thought, “this post involves chess and data. Let’s send it to Ashton Anderson, who loves chess and data.”

Ashton wrote back.

Ashton: Ha yes, I saw this! Would be nice to have the diff between Ivanchuk and the average game. “Chucky”, as he’s known, is the mad genius of chess, but I doubt it manifests itself in what move number he moves particular pieces.

Decision Science News: Good point. Just thought it was an interesting way to visualize things. Would be best IMO as an aggregate over all (good) players.

[One hour passes]

Ashton: Good idea!

[then he posts the image below, which he computed incredibly fast]

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Source is All professional games where both players are rated at least 2500 (grandmaster-level) from ~1950 to 2015 (214,000 games).

Decision Science News: That was fast!

At that point, we got permission to blog about this.

Find Ashton’s R source code (which links the data) below


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