COUNTERINTUITIVE PROBABILITIES REDUX Drawn in by our post Tuesday’s child is full of probability problems, author and Professor of Operations Research and Probability Henk Tijms writes in with two new puzzles: Problem 1: An isolated island is ruled by a dictator. Every family on the island has two children. Each child is equally likely a […]
Monthly Archive February, 2013
One question we get asked a lot is whether it’s worth it to pre-pay for the tank of gas when renting a car.
At first, blush it seems like something you should never do. In the best case, you pay market rate for gas, and in the worst case, you pay for a tank of gas you never consume (what if your trip gets cancelled)?
At second blush, it can be worth the risk to avoid the hassle of fueling up just before returning the car. If your time and peace of mind are worth something, then maybe you should pre-pay when you are reasonably sure you’ll return it below a certain percentage full. But what percentage?
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We take on a reader question of whether the stadium / home team matters for making a field goal. We pulled up the data on every field goal since 2002 (over 10,000) of them and plotted the probability of scoring as a function of the stadium in which the field goal was kicked.
We received a letter from the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Sounds like some great job opportunities for readers of this website:
We have just posted job openings for behavioural economists and a behavioural psychologist, working in the economics department here at the FSA. The deadline for applications is Wednesday 13th February.