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Daily Archive August 30th, 2011

The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: Forecasting Commercial Success for Early-Stage Ventures

Filed in Articles ,Research News
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Most inventions fail to be commercialized profitably. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to predict which ones will? This paper, by Astebro and Elhedhli argues that a simple rule can do quite well making forecasts in a difficult real-world setting.