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PREDICTING ELECTIONS FROM THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY
Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong have put forth a model that predicts the outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections based on the most important issue as seen by voters. It’s a good illustration of how one cue, if it’s a good one, can be effective for forecasting.
It’s an early draft and they would appreciate comments.
The paper is available here: http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/images/papers/PollyMIP.pdf
Photo credit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Election_MG_3455.jpg