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Prediction markets for the 2008 US election

Filed in Research News ,SJDM
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Lionel Page (University of Westminster), in conjunction with Paul Antoine Chevalier (Paris School of Economics), Dan Goldstein (London Business School & Decision Science News), Leighton Vaughan Williams (Nottingham Trent University), and Peter Urwin (University of Westminster) are pleased to bring you Politimetrics.com a Web site that uses prediction markets to forecast election outcomes and more.

What candidate would have the highest probability to win the presidential election if nominated?

What candidate has the program which is more likely to foster growth, reduce unemployment and crime?

All these crucial questions for the voters in this 2008 US election cannot be answered using traditional polls. Using prediction markets in a innovative way, the website Politimetrics.com proposes answers to these questions.

Politimetrics.com presents the estimation of the the conditional probability of success of each candidate if nominated/elected. The numbers are estimated in real time, directly from the prices on specific Intrade contracts.

At this stage of the primary campaign, politimetrics proposes the best answer available the question: “who are the candidates the most likely to win the presidential election if nominated?” Later on in the campaign, we plan to present an even more interesting answer: “which candidate would be the most successful president on a list of issues?” To do so, we have proposed to Intrade a series of specific contracts (listed under the section “Impact of Next President” on their website). Eventually, we hope to be able to answer to questions like:

Is Hilary Clinton more likely to be more effective in managing the economy than John McCain?

Is Mitt Romney more likely to decrease crime than Barack Obama?