## SPUDM 2007. Warsaw August 19-22.

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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY, UTILITY AND DECISION MAKING CONFERENCE The bi-annual SPUDM Conference run by the European Association of Decision Making will take place in Warsaw, Poland between 19th and 23rd August 2007. Researchers and students interested in any in any area of decision making or in a related field are invited to participate in the SPUDM […]

## Chicago Center for Decision Research Job

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RESEARCH SCIENTIST POSTDOC AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO The University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, Center for Decision Research anticipates hiring a Postdoctoral Fellow for a period of one to two years, with a starting date of July 2007. The Postdoctoral Fellow will serve as research scientist funded by a grant from the Templeton […]

## Pepys’ Problem Solved

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A CHANGE OF WEIGHT REVEALS NEWTON’S FLAW Interestingly, Newton’s enumerated solution to Pepys’ problem is correct (see previous DSN entry), but the logic is wrong, as Statistician Stephen Stigler points out. The problem is now solved by with bionomial distribution: the probability of A is the greatest. For those who speak R, the probabilities are […]

## Pepy’s puzzle

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QUESTION FROM A LETTER TO NEWTON In 1693, Samuel Pepys wrote Isaac Newton a letter asking for help solving a probability problem: Which is most probable? A. Six fair dice are tossed independently and at least one “6” appears. B. Twelve fair dice are tossed independently and at least two “6”s appear. C. Eighteen fair […]

## Two CMU Postdocs

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DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING LABORATORY The Dynamic Decision Making Laboratory (DDMLab) (www.cmu.edu/ddmlab) in the department of Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) invites applications for two Postdoctoral fellowship positions in cognitive psychology and decision making. Research projects require experience planning and conducting laboratory studies with complex, dynamic simulations. The DDMLab offers training and […]